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Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
2012-06
2012-06
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196074
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196074
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196074
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
tracking gender disparities in college enrollment and persistence among boston public school graduates from the class of 2009 variations in gender disparities across raceethnic lines
2012/06/01
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
2012-06
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Palma, Sheila
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Palma, Sheila
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Sum, Andrew
info:fedora/afmodel:CoreFile
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Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines 1 Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines Prepared by: Andrew Sum Ishwar Khatiwada Walter McHugh Sheila Palma Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts Prepared for: The Boston Foundation Boston, Massachusetts June 2012 Research Project on the College Enrollment, Persistence and Graduation Experiences of Boston High School Graduates Research Paper No. 7 CENTER FOR LABOR MARKET STUDIES Northeastern University Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 The Gender Composition of the BPS Graduating Class of 2009.....................................................3 The College Enrollment Behavior of Class of 2009 BPS Graduates in the Fall of 2009 ..................................................................................................................................4 Four Year College Attendees ...........................................................................................................8 Historical Trends in the Number of Four Year College Graduates by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group among BPS High School Graduates, Classes of 2000-2005 ...................................................................................................................................12 The Forces Underlying the Large Gender Disparities in Enrollment and Persistence in Four Year Colleges for the BPS Graduating Class of 2009 ................................15 What Can Be Done?.......................................................................................................................18 1 “In today’s economy, the best predictor of success is a good education”. President Obama Weekly Radio Address June 9, 2012 “Among the groups whose economic fortunes have diverged substantially from those of the Golden Era are young adult men without post-secondary degrees and their families”. Andrew Sum, et.al., “No Country for Young Men: Deteriorating Labor Market Prospects for Low Skilled Men in the United States The Annals, 2011 Introduction As the labor market and social success of adults in the U.S. and the state of Massachusetts have become increasingly dependent on their educational attainment, their literacy/math/science proficiencies, and their occupational skills, knowledge of the success of high school students in graduating from high school, successfully transitioning to college and the labor market upon graduation from high school, and persisting in college through graduation has become increasingly important. Educational policy making at the secondary and post-secondary level is dependent upon timely, statistically reliable, and disaggregated data on these transitions into college and the persistence of students in college through graduation and into the labor market upon graduation. In recent years, both here in the city of Boston and other large cities/states across the nation, efforts have been made to track in a comprehensive manner the college enrollment, persistence, and graduation experiences of high school graduates over a lengthy time period from one to eight years after graduation. 1 In response to these findings, especially on the relatively low college graduation rates for key groups of students, the city of Boston and other local school districts/states have set numerical targets for college enrollment and graduation. In Boston, Mayor Menino’s Success Boston Initiative has established goals for college completion for high school graduates from the Classes of 2009 and 2012. A goal of a 50% college graduation rate within six years of high school graduation was established for the Class of 2009 with even loftier goals for the Class of 2012. 1 Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University, Getting to the Finish Line: College Enrollment and Graduation, Report Prepared for the Boston Private Industry Council and the Boston Public Schools, Boston, 2008. 2 To identify the college enrollment and college retention experiences of Boston public school graduates from the Class of 2009, the Center for Labor Market Studies has been analyzing a wide array of data on their demographic backgrounds, reading/math proficiencies, in-school work experiences, and high schools attended by these graduates as well as their college enrollment and persistence experiences through the first plus years following graduation from high school. Earlier studies by the Center for Labor Market Studies, including a recent report prepared for the Boston Foundation 2 , found fairly sizable gender discrepancies in key educational outcomes for Boston public high school students, including high school graduation, college enrollment, college persistence, and graduation rates. The sizes of these gender discrepancies also tended to vary widely across race-ethnic lines, being larger for Black and Hispanic graduates than for Asians and Whites but the gaps for the latter two groups also appeared to be widening over time. In the recent March 2012 report, the on-time high school graduation rates and four year college plans of Boston public school graduates from the Class of 2009 were estimated for men and women separately and compared to those for high school students in other large urban districts across the state and in 12 affluent school districts. 3 The findings revealed large gaps in on-time high school graduation rates and planned four year college enrollment rates between the large urban and affluent school districts, but the size of the discrepancies between these two groups of schools varied widely across gender groups, being much higher for men than for women. Gender gaps in these combined high school graduation/planned four year college attendance rates were much larger in the large urban school districts, including Boston. This research report expands upon the analysis presented in the prior paper in several ways. Rather than relying on the expected college plans and one year follow-up surveys of Boston graduates from the Class of 2009 to track their college enrollment, we use the records from the National Student Clearinghouse to identify the share of graduates who enrolled in college in the fall semester following graduation, the type of institution in which they enrolled (2 year or 4 year college), and their persistence in college over the following two years. We also 2 See: Andrew Sum, Walter McHugh, Jacqui Motroni, Sheila Palma, High School Graduation Outcomes and College Enrollment Plans of Class of 2009 High School Students by Gender in the City of Boston and Selected Large Urban and Affluent School Districts Across the State of Massachusetts, Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University, a Report Prepared for the Boston Foundation, Boston, March 2012. 3 Ibid. 3 disaggregate the data by race-ethnic group, providing estimates of educational outcomes for Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White students. Findings on gender disparities in college graduation rates for earlier years over the decade (2000, 2003, 2005) also are presented. Our analysis will begin with a review of the numbers of male and female high school graduates from Boston public schools for the Class of 2009. The Gender Composition of the BPS Graduating Class of 2009 The total number of graduates from the Boston Public Schools in 2009 was 3,637. Of this total, 1,957 of the graduates were women and 1,680 were men, representing a ratio of 116 women per 100 men (See Table 1). The ratios of female to male graduates did, however, vary across race-ethnic groups, ranging from 105 among White, non-Hispanics to 125 among Hispanics. The higher ratios of female to male graduates reflects the higher graduation rates of women not a higher number of women in the incoming freshman class. The estimated four year on-time high school graduation rate for the cohort of first time freshmen that made up the potential graduating Class of 2009 was 67% for women versus only 55% for men. Table 1: Number of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009, by Gender, All and by Race-Ethnic Group Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 192 212 110 Black 718 820 114 Hispanic 488 612 125 White, not Hispanic 273 287 105 All 1,680 1,957 116 While women clearly outperformed men in graduating from high school in 2009, the size of the gender disparity was actually the second lowest over the past decade. In 2000, the gender ratio was equal to 119 women per 100 men. It fell to 113 in 2001, but then it rose sharply over the next two years, rising to 129 in 2003, the first year in which a public school student had to pass the MCAS exam in order to graduate with a regular diploma. With the exception of 2007, when the ratio hit 133, the gender disparity has declined in more recent years, declining to 122 per 100 in 2008 and to 116 in 2009. Male and female high school graduation rates in Boston, 4 however, need to be steadily improved to better prepare them for the future economy and social existence. Chart 1: The Number of Female High School Graduates Per 100 Males from The Boston Public Schools, Selected Years 2000 to 2009 The College Enrollment Behavior of Class of 2009 BPS Graduates in the Fall of 2009 Findings from the National Student Clearinghouse reveal that close to 61% of the BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 had enrolled in a two or four year college in the fall of 2009. 4 As was true for all earlier years over the decade, the aggregate college enrollment rate of female graduates exceeded that of men by 7 full percentage points (63.6% versus 56.5%) (See Table 2). Among Black, Hispanic, and White graduates, women attended college at higher rates than men with double-digit differences prevailing among Hispanics and White, non-Hispanics. Only among Asians was the college enrollment rate higher among male graduates than among women. 4 By the Fall of 2011, nearly 75% of the BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 had enrolled in a two or four year college. Nearly 67% had enrolled in some college by the end of the first year following graduation. The PIC follow- up data indicate close to71% were enrolled in the Spring of 2010. The NLS data base excludes some graduation attending colleges that are not member of the National Student Clearinghouse. 119 113 120 129 123 122 116 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006 2008 2009 R a ti o Year 5 Table 2: Fall 2009 College Attendance Rates of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group (in %) Race/Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women – Men All 56.6 63.6 +7.0 Asian 82.8 78.3 -4.5 Black 53.2 59.6 +6.4 Hispanic 43.6 56.7 +13.1 White, not Hispanic 69.6 79.8 +10.2 Given their greater numbers of high school graduates and their higher rate of college enrollment, the number of female BPS graduates who attended some type of college in the fall following graduation exceeded the number of male graduates by 31% (Table 3). There were 1,245 women enrolled in college versus 951 men, or a ratio of 131 women per 100 men. There were more female college enrollees than men in each of the four race-ethnic groups, but the ratios of women to men varied quite widely across the four race-ethnic groups, ranging from 104 among Asians to 128 among Black, non-Hispanics to a high of 163 among Hispanics. The large gender gap among Hispanics is deserving of further study, given the increasing numbers of Hispanics in the Boston public schools Table 3: Number of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009, Who Attended College in the Fall of 2009 by Gender, Total and by Race-Ethnic Group Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 159 166 104 Black 382 488 128 Hispanic 213 347 163 White, not Hispanic 190 229 121 All 951 1,245 131 6 Chart 3: Ratio of Female to Male BPS Graduates, Class of 2009, Who Attended College in the Fall of 2009 by Race-Ethnic Group The persistence rates of first time college enrollees in the fall of 2009 through the fall of 2011 were tracked with the National Student Clearinghouse data. In the aggregate, female college enrollees were more likely than males to persist in college over this two year period. Over 73% of female college students persisted versus only 65% of the men (Table 4). College persistence rates for 2 year and 4 year college students differed quite widely with gaps of 24 and 35 percentage points in favor of four year colleges for men and women respectively. Males were slightly more likely than women to persist in the two year colleges while women enjoyed a near nine percentage point persistence advantage in the four year colleges. Table 4: Two Year College Persistence Rates of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009, by Gender and Type of College Attended (in %) Type of College (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men 2 Year 48.8 46.5 -2.3 4 Year 72.4 81.2 +8.8 All 65.1 73.2 +8.1 131 104 121 128 163 100 120 140 160 180 All Asian White, not Hispanic Black Hispanic R a ti o Race/Ethnic Group 7 In each of the four race-ethnic groups, the two year persistence rates of female college students exceeded those of men. The percentage point sizes of these retention differences ranged from 7 to 12 percentage points (Table 5). Across these eight gender/race-ethnic groups, persistence rates varied quite considerably, ranging from a low of 58% among Hispanic males to 92% among Asian women. Table 5: Two Year Persistence Rates Among College Enrolled Graduates From the BPS Class of 2009 by Race-Ethnic Group (in %) Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women – Men Asian 83 92 +9 Black 60 69 +9 Hispanic 58 65 +7 White, not Hispanic 70 82 +12 Since female BPS graduates were both more likely than men to attend college and to persist in college over the first two years, there were substantially more women than men in the Fall of 2011 who had entered college right after graduation and remained in college in the fall semester two years later. There were 912 women versus only 620 men, yielding a ratio of 147 women per 100 men (Table 6). In each race-ethnic group, there were more women than men who met these two criteria on initial college enrollment and persistence. These ratios ranged from 115 among Asians to 148 among Blacks to a high of 182 among Hispanics. Table 6: Number of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009 Who Attended College in the Fall of 2009 and Persisted in College Through the Fall of 2011 by Gender, Total and by Race-Ethnic Group Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 132 152 115 Black 228 337 148 Hispanic 124 225 182 White, not Hispanic 134 188 140 All 620 912 147 8 Four Year College Attendees A substantial majority (74%) of BPS graduates enrolled in college in the fall of 2009 were attending a four year college or university. Women were more likely than men to have enrolled in four year colleges (77% vs. 70%). In each of the four race-ethnic groups, women were enrolled in four year colleges to a higher degree than each of their respective male counterparts (Table 7). The percentage point differences between the share of female and male four year college enrollees in these four groups ranged from 7 to 10 percentage points. Taking into account both the gender and race-ethnic backgrounds of these youth, the shares of college enrollees from the BPS graduating Class of 2009 who were attending four year colleges varied from low of 61 to 62 per cent among Black and Hispanic males to highs of 90 and 95 per cent among White, non-Hispanic and Asian women. Table 7: The Share of College Enrollees from the BPS Class of 2009 Who Attended a Four Year College in the Fall Following Graduation by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group (in %) Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 86 95 +9 Black 61 71 +10 Hispanic 62 69 +7 White, not Hispanic 81 90 +9 All 70 77 +7 As a consequence of their higher college enrollment rate and the greater likelihood of attending a four year college, there were considerably more women than men from the graduating Class of 2009 in four year colleges in the fall of 2009. There were 961 women attending a four year college versus only 662 men, a relative difference of 1.45 times (See Table 8). Again, in each of the four race-ethnic groups, we find more women than men attending four year colleges in the fall of 2009. These ratios ranged from 115 per 100 among Asians to 180 per 100 among Hispanics. 9 Table 8: The Numbers of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 Who Enrolled in a Four Year College in the Fall Immediately Following Graduation by Gender and Race/Ethnic Group Race/Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 137 157 115 Black 233 346 148 Hispanic 133 239 180 White, not Hispanic 154 207 134 Total 662 961 145 As noted earlier, the two year persistence rates of four year college attendees were higher among women than among men (81.2% vs. 72.4%). Women in each race-ethnic group had a higher persistence rate than their male counterparts (Chart 4). The gaps between these two year persistence rates ranged from 6 percentage points among Asians to 10-11 percentage points among Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites, The variation in these two year persistence rates across eight gender/race-ethnic groups was quite substantial. These persistence rates ranged from lows of 65 to 66 per cent among Black and Hispanic males to highs of 87 to 92 per cent among White, non-Hispanic and Asian women. A better understanding of the forces driving these large differences in two year persistence rates across these gender/race-ethnic groups is needed if the long run college graduation goals of Mayor Menino’s Success Boston initiative are to be achieved. Can the mentoring and case management services of the Success Boston programs contribute to an improvement in the college persistence rates of Black and Hispanic males attending four year colleges? 10 Chart 4: Two Year Persistence Rates of Four Year College Attendees by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group, BPS Class of 2009 Given both their higher enrollment rates in four year colleges and their higher two year persistence rates, the number of BPS female graduates from the Class of 2009 who achieved these two goals substantially exceeded the number of males. There were 780 women who attended a four year college in the fall of 2009 and were still enrolled in a four year college two years later versus only 479 men, ratio of 163 women per 100 men. Table 9: The Numbers of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 Enrolled in a Four Year College in the Fall Who Persisted in College Through the Fall Two Years Later by Gender and Race/Ethnic Group Race/Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 118 145 123 Black 154 267 173 Hispanic 87 180 207 White, not Hispanic 127 179 141 Total 479 780 163 86.1 92.4 66.1 77.2 65.4 75.3 76.6 86.5 60 70 80 90 100 Asian Men Asian Women Black Men Black Women Hispanic Men Hispanic Women White Men White Women P er C en t Gender/Race-Ethnic Group 11 Again, in each of the four major race-ethnic groups, we find a higher number of women who achieved both of these educational goals than men. The values of these gender ratios, however, did vary fairly widely across the race-ethnic group ranging from 123 per 100 among Asians to 173 per 100 among Black BPS graduates to a high of 207 per 100 among Hispanics. Chart 5: Ratio of Female to Male BPS Graduates from the Class of 2009 Who Enrolled in a Four-Year College in the Fall of 2009 and Persisted in College Through the Fall of 2011 by Race-Ethnic Group The success rates of Class of 2009 BPS high school graduates in achieving these two educational milestones can now be calculated for each gender and race-ethnic group. Among all male graduates, only 28 of every 100 met these two goals versus 40 of every 100 among women graduates from the Class of 2009. Across the eight gender/race-ethnic groups, the share of graduates achieving these two college enrollment and persistence goals ranged from lows of 18 per 100 among Hispanic men and 21 per 100 among Black men to highs of 62 per 100 among White women and 68 per 100 among Asian women (Chart 6). The Asian women performance on this measure was nearly four times as high as that of Hispanic males. These gaps need to be considerably narrowed in the years ahead if the goals of the Mayor’s Success Boston Initiative are to be achieved, particularly given the growth in the Hispanic student share of the Boston public schools. 123 141 173 207 100 150 200 250 Asian White, not Hispanic Black Hispanic R a ti o Race/Ethnic Group 12 Chart 6: The Share of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 Who Enrolled in A Four Year College Upon Graduation and Persisted for Two Years by Gender/Race-Ethnic Group Historical Trends in the Number of Four Year College Graduates by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group among BPS High School Graduates, Classes of 2000- 2005 To provide some historical perspective on the findings of the four year college enrollment and persistence experiences for BPS Class of 2009 graduates, we used the supplemented NSC data bases on the numbers of graduates from the Classes of 2000, 2003, and 2005 who had obtained a four year college degree by the end of calendar year 2010 or 2011. 5 The numbers of bachelor degrees obtained by men and women both overall and in each gender/race-ethnic group also were estimated to allow comparisons with the above findings for BPS Class of 2009 graduates who had enrolled in a four year college in the fall of 2009 and persisted in college through the fall of 2011. Findings on the number of BPS graduates from the Class of 2010 who had obtained a bachelor’s degree by December 2010, more than ten years after their graduation from high school, are displayed in Table 10. The number of women with a bachelor’s degree by December 5 We refer to this data base as the “supplemented NSC” data base since a number of colleges and universities in Massachusetts who were not member of the National Clearinghouse in earlier years provided the Center for Labor Market Studies with data on college enrollment and graduation. 18 21 30 33 47 61 62 68 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Hispanic Men Black Men Hispanic Women Black Women White Men Asian Men White Women Asian Women P er C en t Gender/Race-Ethnic Group 13 2010 was 488 versus only 302 for men, yielding a ratio of 162 bachelor degrees for women for every 100 men. This ratio is basically identical to the gender gap for BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 who had enrolled in a four year college in the fall of 2009 and persisted in college through the fall of 2011. The gender gaps in bachelor degree attainment for the Class of 2000 varied quite widely across race-ethnic groups, varying in size from 107 per 100 among Asians to 225 per 100 among Blacks and 280 among Hispanics. Table 10: The Number of Four Year College Graduates from the BPS Class of 2000 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group (as of December 2010) Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women per 100 Men Asian 75 80 107 Black 92 207 225 Hispanic 25 70 280 White, not Hispanic 109 131 120 Total 302 488 162 The findings of our analysis of the number of Bachelor degrees obtained by BPS graduates from the Class of 2003 as of December 2011 by race-ethnic group are displayed in Table 11. The BPS graduating Class of 2003 was the first class that had to pass the MCAS exam to receive a regular high school diploma. The ratio of female to male high school graduates jumped sharply in that year to a high of 129 per 100. The number of female graduates who had earned a Bachelor’s degree by the end of 2010 was 576 or nearly twice as high as the number of males receiving such a degree (Table 11). In each race-ethnic group, except Hispanics, the gender gap divide in bachelor’s degrees awarded rose sharply between 2000 and 2003. The gender ratios ranged from 145 bachelor degrees for women to 100 for men among Asians to 266 bachelor degrees for women per 100 men among Black BPS graduates from the Class of 2003. 14 Table 11: The Number of Four-Year College Graduates From the Boston Public Schools Class of 2003 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group as of December 2011 Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 77 112 145 Black 89 237 266 Hispanic 33 73 221 White, not Hispanic 98 154 157 Total 297 576 194 An analysis of National Student Clearinghouse data for the BPS Class of 2005 through December 2011 revealed that gender disparities in bachelor degree attainment had declined from the very high levels in 2003 but were about identical to those in 2000 (Table 12). By December 2011, 522 female graduates from the Class of 2005 had earned a bachelor’s degree versus only 316 men, yielding an overall ratio of 165 women per 100 men with a bachelor’s degree. The gender disparities for each race-ethnic group, except Asians, had declined over this time period but still remained quite high. The ratios of women per 100 men with a bachelor’s degree by the end of 2011 varied from 139 among White, non-Hispanics to 148 among Asians, 192 among Blacks, and 211 among Hispanics. Table 12: The Number of Four-Year College Graduates from the Boston Public School Class of 2005 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Groups as of December 2011 Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 82 121 148 Black 93 179 192 Hispanic 35 74 211 White, not Hispanic 106 147 139 Total 316 522 165 15 The Forces Underlying the Large Gender Disparities in Enrollment and Persistence in Four Year Colleges for the BPS Graduating Class of 2009 Two years after graduating from high school in the late spring of 2009, we again find a very large gap between the numbers of male and female BPS high school graduates who enrolled in a four year college immediately after graduation and persisted through the first two years. There were 163 women enrolled in a four year college per 100 men overall and among Blacks and Hispanics the ratios were an even larger 173 and 207, respectively. As noted above, these gender disparities reflect the joint outcomes of a variety of behaviors, including the higher rate of high school graduation among women, their higher college enrollment rate upon graduation, their greater likelihood of enrolling in a four year college or university, and their higher rate of persistence in college through the first two years. The likelihood of enrolling in college immediately upon graduation from high school is significantly influenced by the type of high school one attended, one’s reading and math proficiencies as measured by the MCAS tests, and one’s work behavior in high school. On several of these variables, male graduates tended to lag behind their female peers. For example, the number of women from the graduating Class of 2009 who attended one of the city’s three exam schools was 45% higher than the number of male graduates (See Table 13). There were 509 female graduates from those three high schools versus only 351 men. In the city’s pilot high schools, there were 377 female graduates versus 316 men, a ratio of 119 women per 100 male graduates. Among Blacks and Hispanics, the ratios were even higher at 123 and 141, respectively. Table 13: Comparisons of the Number of Female and Male BPS High School Graduates from the Exam Schools and Pilot Schools, Class of 2009 Gender (A) Exam Schools (B) Pilot Schools (C) Pilot Schools, Black (D) Pilot Schools, Hispanic Female 509 377 185 143 Male 351 316 150 102 Number of Women Per 100 Men 145 119 123 141 16 Women also tended to outperform men on the MCAS tests, especially in reading. Approximately 55% of the female graduates from the Class of 2009 scored proficient or advanced on the reading test versus only 41% of the men (Table 14). The gaps in performance on achieving a proficient or advanced rating on the MCAS math test were smaller in size but still favored women by about 3 to 4 percentage points. Table 14: The Distribution of Class of 2009 Male and Female Boston Public School Graduates by Their Scores on the MCAS Reading Test (in %) MCAS Reading Score (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women – Men Missing 12 10 -2 Failed 9 6 -3 Need Improvement 39 29 -10 Proficient 35 40 +5 Advanced 6 15 +9 To identify the influence of these school attendance, test score performance, and in- school work behaviors on the college attendance behavior of males from the Class of 2009, we estimated a set of linear probability models of the college attendance decision. The dependent variable in this model is a dichotomous (dummy) variable that takes on the value of 1 if the respondent was enrolled in college at the time of the spring 2010 follow-up survey and 0 if not enrolled. The predictor variables included the race-ethnic backgrounds of these young men, the type of high school attended, their last recorded MCAS reading test score, and their summer and senior year work behaviors. 6 Key findings are displayed in Table 15. 6 Another set of models which substituted MCAS math scores for the reading scores came to very similar conclusions. Higher math scores have slightly larger positive effects on college attendance. 17 Table 15: Findings of the Linear Probability Model of the Probability of a Male BPS High School Graduate from the Class of 2009 Attending College in the first Year Following Graduation Variables (A) Coefficient (B) Stat. Sig. Constant .490 *** Asian .152 *** Black .082 ** Hispanic .042 -- Att Exam School .266 *** Att Pilot School .123 *** MCAS Read/Failed -.063 *** MCAS Read Prof/Adv. .075 *** Worked 2 or More Summers .053 ** Worked 1-13 Weeks Senior Year .132 ** Worked More than 13 Weeks .002 -- Notes: *** sig. .01; ** sig. .05; * sig. 10. Male students who attended either one of the three exam schools or a pilot high school were significantly more likely to attend college upon graduation from high school and especially a four year college. 7 The estimated exam school effect was quite substantial at nearly 27 percentage points versus 12 percentage points for attending a pilot high school. Failure to pass the MCAS test was associated with a statistically significant negative 6 percentage point lower probability of attending college 8 while achieving a proficient or advanced score on the MCAS reading test would raise the probability of attending college by close to 8 percentage points. Those males who worked 2 or more summers during the high school years were significantly more likely to attend college than their peers with very limited to no summer job experience, and those who worked between 1 and 13 weeks during the senior year were 13 percentage points more likely to attend college than their peers with no senior year work experience. By increasing the likelihood that males will gain exposure to the job market during their senior year, school-to-career programs can indirectly raise prospects for attending college 7 These are ceteris paribus results, i.e., holding the values of all other predictors constant. 8 Some students from special education backgrounds can appeal to graduate with a regular diploma even though they failed the MCAS as long as they meet other academic and behavioral requirements. 18 among men. Combining mentorship and strong career exposure with such work may be able to achieve even larger impacts on college attendance. While each of the above factors help explain some of the gaps in college attendance between men and women, they do not account for all of the difference. In a set of separate regression models of the probability of attending college in the fall immediately following graduation from high school that included observations for both men and women, we found that being a male, ceteris paribus, significantly reduced the probability of going to college. For the combined pool of graduates (all race-ethnic groups and both genders), we estimated that being a male reduced the probability of initial college attendance by 9 percentage points. The male variable was significant and quite large (8 to 13 percentage points) in the separate models for Black, Hispanic, and White, non-Hispanic graduates but not in the model for Asians. Clearly, there are other forces at work reducing the college going propensity of BPS males. Similar analysis of college persistence rates of BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 shows modest negative effects of being male on persisting in college for one or two years. Table 16: Estimated Independent Impact of Being Male on the Probability of Attending College in the First Year Following Graduation from High School, BPS Class of 2009 Coefficient on Male Variable (A) All (B) Asian (C) Black (D) Hispanic (E) White Male -.091*** .029 -.083*** -.113*** -.135*** Notes: *** sig. .01; ** sig. .05. What Can Be Done? The continued large gender disparities in college attendance and persistence, especially in four year colleges, has a number of important consequences for both the attainment of Mayor Menino’s Success Boston college completion goals as well as for other local educational goals, including an increase in the high school graduation rate and a continued rise in college enrollment. Encouraging more males to complete high school, attend college or some post- secondary training program, and graduate from such programs is also critical to efforts to improve the future living standards of young adult males, young families, and children in the city of Boston and throughout the state. Young males with no high school diploma and those with a 19 diploma but no post-secondary schooling have faced deteriorating employment and earnings prospects over the past decade. Their labor market difficulties have reduced their ability to form independent households, to marry, and to support their children. These developments in turn have increased their income inadequacy problems, reduced tax revenues, increased government cash and in-kind transfers, expanded the pool of jail and prison inmates, and placed more of the city’s children in economic and educational jeopardy. Children raised in low income, single parent families have lower cognitive abilities, are more likely to fall behind their peers in school, to drop out of high school, and to neither attend college nor obtain a college degree when they do graduate from high school. Successful strategies must be pursued on several different fronts to reduce the steep gender disparities in educational outcomes. First, the high school graduation rate of male BPS students must be substantially improved, especially among Black and Hispanic men. Some recent progress has been achieved, but much more work needs to be done. Efforts to support the passage and implementation of the Massachusetts legislature’s bill on Dropout Recovery and Prevention should be promoted. Second, sustained efforts must be made to improve the reading, math, writing, and science proficiencies of many male high school students. Weak MCAS performance in math and reading increases the probabilities of dropping out of high school, of not attending college upon graduation from high school, especially a four year college, and of failing to persist in college through graduation. A BPS first year college student with reading/math MCAS scores in the category “needs improvement” had only a 53% probability of persisting in college for two years versus a 90% probability for a student with an advanced proficiency in reading and math. Third, more male high school students must be prepared for and able to successfully persist in the city’s exam schools and its pilot high schools. There are large gender gaps in enrollments and graduates from such high schools. The high positive, post-secondary outcomes from completing high school in such schools calls for action to improve male representation, and policies to expand overall enrollment in such schools should be promoted. Efforts must be made to improve the college enrollment rates of male BPS graduates, especially in the non-exam high schools. The ability of Success Boston programs to improve college enrollments and college persistence should be continuously evaluated. Preliminary 20 evidence suggests very favorable impacts on college persistence in the first and second years following initial enrollment, especially for males. These are very promising preliminary results that need to be maintained and replicated for future cohorts. Further research on the impacts of such programs in improving college graduation among participants is needed.
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Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
2012-06
2012-06
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196074
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196074
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196074
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
tracking gender disparities in college enrollment and persistence among boston public school graduates from the class of 2009 variations in gender disparities across raceethnic lines
2012/06/01
Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines
2012-06
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Palma, Sheila
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Palma, Sheila
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Sum, Andrew
info:fedora/afmodel:CoreFile
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Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines 1 Tracking Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Persistence Among Boston Public School Graduates from the Class of 2009: Variations in Gender Disparities Across Race/Ethnic Lines Prepared by: Andrew Sum Ishwar Khatiwada Walter McHugh Sheila Palma Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts Prepared for: The Boston Foundation Boston, Massachusetts June 2012 Research Project on the College Enrollment, Persistence and Graduation Experiences of Boston High School Graduates Research Paper No. 7 CENTER FOR LABOR MARKET STUDIES Northeastern University Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 The Gender Composition of the BPS Graduating Class of 2009.....................................................3 The College Enrollment Behavior of Class of 2009 BPS Graduates in the Fall of 2009 ..................................................................................................................................4 Four Year College Attendees ...........................................................................................................8 Historical Trends in the Number of Four Year College Graduates by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group among BPS High School Graduates, Classes of 2000-2005 ...................................................................................................................................12 The Forces Underlying the Large Gender Disparities in Enrollment and Persistence in Four Year Colleges for the BPS Graduating Class of 2009 ................................15 What Can Be Done?.......................................................................................................................18 1 “In today’s economy, the best predictor of success is a good education”. President Obama Weekly Radio Address June 9, 2012 “Among the groups whose economic fortunes have diverged substantially from those of the Golden Era are young adult men without post-secondary degrees and their families”. Andrew Sum, et.al., “No Country for Young Men: Deteriorating Labor Market Prospects for Low Skilled Men in the United States The Annals, 2011 Introduction As the labor market and social success of adults in the U.S. and the state of Massachusetts have become increasingly dependent on their educational attainment, their literacy/math/science proficiencies, and their occupational skills, knowledge of the success of high school students in graduating from high school, successfully transitioning to college and the labor market upon graduation from high school, and persisting in college through graduation has become increasingly important. Educational policy making at the secondary and post-secondary level is dependent upon timely, statistically reliable, and disaggregated data on these transitions into college and the persistence of students in college through graduation and into the labor market upon graduation. In recent years, both here in the city of Boston and other large cities/states across the nation, efforts have been made to track in a comprehensive manner the college enrollment, persistence, and graduation experiences of high school graduates over a lengthy time period from one to eight years after graduation. 1 In response to these findings, especially on the relatively low college graduation rates for key groups of students, the city of Boston and other local school districts/states have set numerical targets for college enrollment and graduation. In Boston, Mayor Menino’s Success Boston Initiative has established goals for college completion for high school graduates from the Classes of 2009 and 2012. A goal of a 50% college graduation rate within six years of high school graduation was established for the Class of 2009 with even loftier goals for the Class of 2012. 1 Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University, Getting to the Finish Line: College Enrollment and Graduation, Report Prepared for the Boston Private Industry Council and the Boston Public Schools, Boston, 2008. 2 To identify the college enrollment and college retention experiences of Boston public school graduates from the Class of 2009, the Center for Labor Market Studies has been analyzing a wide array of data on their demographic backgrounds, reading/math proficiencies, in-school work experiences, and high schools attended by these graduates as well as their college enrollment and persistence experiences through the first plus years following graduation from high school. Earlier studies by the Center for Labor Market Studies, including a recent report prepared for the Boston Foundation 2 , found fairly sizable gender discrepancies in key educational outcomes for Boston public high school students, including high school graduation, college enrollment, college persistence, and graduation rates. The sizes of these gender discrepancies also tended to vary widely across race-ethnic lines, being larger for Black and Hispanic graduates than for Asians and Whites but the gaps for the latter two groups also appeared to be widening over time. In the recent March 2012 report, the on-time high school graduation rates and four year college plans of Boston public school graduates from the Class of 2009 were estimated for men and women separately and compared to those for high school students in other large urban districts across the state and in 12 affluent school districts. 3 The findings revealed large gaps in on-time high school graduation rates and planned four year college enrollment rates between the large urban and affluent school districts, but the size of the discrepancies between these two groups of schools varied widely across gender groups, being much higher for men than for women. Gender gaps in these combined high school graduation/planned four year college attendance rates were much larger in the large urban school districts, including Boston. This research report expands upon the analysis presented in the prior paper in several ways. Rather than relying on the expected college plans and one year follow-up surveys of Boston graduates from the Class of 2009 to track their college enrollment, we use the records from the National Student Clearinghouse to identify the share of graduates who enrolled in college in the fall semester following graduation, the type of institution in which they enrolled (2 year or 4 year college), and their persistence in college over the following two years. We also 2 See: Andrew Sum, Walter McHugh, Jacqui Motroni, Sheila Palma, High School Graduation Outcomes and College Enrollment Plans of Class of 2009 High School Students by Gender in the City of Boston and Selected Large Urban and Affluent School Districts Across the State of Massachusetts, Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University, a Report Prepared for the Boston Foundation, Boston, March 2012. 3 Ibid. 3 disaggregate the data by race-ethnic group, providing estimates of educational outcomes for Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White students. Findings on gender disparities in college graduation rates for earlier years over the decade (2000, 2003, 2005) also are presented. Our analysis will begin with a review of the numbers of male and female high school graduates from Boston public schools for the Class of 2009. The Gender Composition of the BPS Graduating Class of 2009 The total number of graduates from the Boston Public Schools in 2009 was 3,637. Of this total, 1,957 of the graduates were women and 1,680 were men, representing a ratio of 116 women per 100 men (See Table 1). The ratios of female to male graduates did, however, vary across race-ethnic groups, ranging from 105 among White, non-Hispanics to 125 among Hispanics. The higher ratios of female to male graduates reflects the higher graduation rates of women not a higher number of women in the incoming freshman class. The estimated four year on-time high school graduation rate for the cohort of first time freshmen that made up the potential graduating Class of 2009 was 67% for women versus only 55% for men. Table 1: Number of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009, by Gender, All and by Race-Ethnic Group Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 192 212 110 Black 718 820 114 Hispanic 488 612 125 White, not Hispanic 273 287 105 All 1,680 1,957 116 While women clearly outperformed men in graduating from high school in 2009, the size of the gender disparity was actually the second lowest over the past decade. In 2000, the gender ratio was equal to 119 women per 100 men. It fell to 113 in 2001, but then it rose sharply over the next two years, rising to 129 in 2003, the first year in which a public school student had to pass the MCAS exam in order to graduate with a regular diploma. With the exception of 2007, when the ratio hit 133, the gender disparity has declined in more recent years, declining to 122 per 100 in 2008 and to 116 in 2009. Male and female high school graduation rates in Boston, 4 however, need to be steadily improved to better prepare them for the future economy and social existence. Chart 1: The Number of Female High School Graduates Per 100 Males from The Boston Public Schools, Selected Years 2000 to 2009 The College Enrollment Behavior of Class of 2009 BPS Graduates in the Fall of 2009 Findings from the National Student Clearinghouse reveal that close to 61% of the BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 had enrolled in a two or four year college in the fall of 2009. 4 As was true for all earlier years over the decade, the aggregate college enrollment rate of female graduates exceeded that of men by 7 full percentage points (63.6% versus 56.5%) (See Table 2). Among Black, Hispanic, and White graduates, women attended college at higher rates than men with double-digit differences prevailing among Hispanics and White, non-Hispanics. Only among Asians was the college enrollment rate higher among male graduates than among women. 4 By the Fall of 2011, nearly 75% of the BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 had enrolled in a two or four year college. Nearly 67% had enrolled in some college by the end of the first year following graduation. The PIC follow- up data indicate close to71% were enrolled in the Spring of 2010. The NLS data base excludes some graduation attending colleges that are not member of the National Student Clearinghouse. 119 113 120 129 123 122 116 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006 2008 2009 R a ti o Year 5 Table 2: Fall 2009 College Attendance Rates of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group (in %) Race/Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women – Men All 56.6 63.6 +7.0 Asian 82.8 78.3 -4.5 Black 53.2 59.6 +6.4 Hispanic 43.6 56.7 +13.1 White, not Hispanic 69.6 79.8 +10.2 Given their greater numbers of high school graduates and their higher rate of college enrollment, the number of female BPS graduates who attended some type of college in the fall following graduation exceeded the number of male graduates by 31% (Table 3). There were 1,245 women enrolled in college versus 951 men, or a ratio of 131 women per 100 men. There were more female college enrollees than men in each of the four race-ethnic groups, but the ratios of women to men varied quite widely across the four race-ethnic groups, ranging from 104 among Asians to 128 among Black, non-Hispanics to a high of 163 among Hispanics. The large gender gap among Hispanics is deserving of further study, given the increasing numbers of Hispanics in the Boston public schools Table 3: Number of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009, Who Attended College in the Fall of 2009 by Gender, Total and by Race-Ethnic Group Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 159 166 104 Black 382 488 128 Hispanic 213 347 163 White, not Hispanic 190 229 121 All 951 1,245 131 6 Chart 3: Ratio of Female to Male BPS Graduates, Class of 2009, Who Attended College in the Fall of 2009 by Race-Ethnic Group The persistence rates of first time college enrollees in the fall of 2009 through the fall of 2011 were tracked with the National Student Clearinghouse data. In the aggregate, female college enrollees were more likely than males to persist in college over this two year period. Over 73% of female college students persisted versus only 65% of the men (Table 4). College persistence rates for 2 year and 4 year college students differed quite widely with gaps of 24 and 35 percentage points in favor of four year colleges for men and women respectively. Males were slightly more likely than women to persist in the two year colleges while women enjoyed a near nine percentage point persistence advantage in the four year colleges. Table 4: Two Year College Persistence Rates of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009, by Gender and Type of College Attended (in %) Type of College (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men 2 Year 48.8 46.5 -2.3 4 Year 72.4 81.2 +8.8 All 65.1 73.2 +8.1 131 104 121 128 163 100 120 140 160 180 All Asian White, not Hispanic Black Hispanic R a ti o Race/Ethnic Group 7 In each of the four race-ethnic groups, the two year persistence rates of female college students exceeded those of men. The percentage point sizes of these retention differences ranged from 7 to 12 percentage points (Table 5). Across these eight gender/race-ethnic groups, persistence rates varied quite considerably, ranging from a low of 58% among Hispanic males to 92% among Asian women. Table 5: Two Year Persistence Rates Among College Enrolled Graduates From the BPS Class of 2009 by Race-Ethnic Group (in %) Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women – Men Asian 83 92 +9 Black 60 69 +9 Hispanic 58 65 +7 White, not Hispanic 70 82 +12 Since female BPS graduates were both more likely than men to attend college and to persist in college over the first two years, there were substantially more women than men in the Fall of 2011 who had entered college right after graduation and remained in college in the fall semester two years later. There were 912 women versus only 620 men, yielding a ratio of 147 women per 100 men (Table 6). In each race-ethnic group, there were more women than men who met these two criteria on initial college enrollment and persistence. These ratios ranged from 115 among Asians to 148 among Blacks to a high of 182 among Hispanics. Table 6: Number of BPS High School Graduates, Class of 2009 Who Attended College in the Fall of 2009 and Persisted in College Through the Fall of 2011 by Gender, Total and by Race-Ethnic Group Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 132 152 115 Black 228 337 148 Hispanic 124 225 182 White, not Hispanic 134 188 140 All 620 912 147 8 Four Year College Attendees A substantial majority (74%) of BPS graduates enrolled in college in the fall of 2009 were attending a four year college or university. Women were more likely than men to have enrolled in four year colleges (77% vs. 70%). In each of the four race-ethnic groups, women were enrolled in four year colleges to a higher degree than each of their respective male counterparts (Table 7). The percentage point differences between the share of female and male four year college enrollees in these four groups ranged from 7 to 10 percentage points. Taking into account both the gender and race-ethnic backgrounds of these youth, the shares of college enrollees from the BPS graduating Class of 2009 who were attending four year colleges varied from low of 61 to 62 per cent among Black and Hispanic males to highs of 90 and 95 per cent among White, non-Hispanic and Asian women. Table 7: The Share of College Enrollees from the BPS Class of 2009 Who Attended a Four Year College in the Fall Following Graduation by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group (in %) Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women / Men Asian 86 95 +9 Black 61 71 +10 Hispanic 62 69 +7 White, not Hispanic 81 90 +9 All 70 77 +7 As a consequence of their higher college enrollment rate and the greater likelihood of attending a four year college, there were considerably more women than men from the graduating Class of 2009 in four year colleges in the fall of 2009. There were 961 women attending a four year college versus only 662 men, a relative difference of 1.45 times (See Table 8). Again, in each of the four race-ethnic groups, we find more women than men attending four year colleges in the fall of 2009. These ratios ranged from 115 per 100 among Asians to 180 per 100 among Hispanics. 9 Table 8: The Numbers of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 Who Enrolled in a Four Year College in the Fall Immediately Following Graduation by Gender and Race/Ethnic Group Race/Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 137 157 115 Black 233 346 148 Hispanic 133 239 180 White, not Hispanic 154 207 134 Total 662 961 145 As noted earlier, the two year persistence rates of four year college attendees were higher among women than among men (81.2% vs. 72.4%). Women in each race-ethnic group had a higher persistence rate than their male counterparts (Chart 4). The gaps between these two year persistence rates ranged from 6 percentage points among Asians to 10-11 percentage points among Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites, The variation in these two year persistence rates across eight gender/race-ethnic groups was quite substantial. These persistence rates ranged from lows of 65 to 66 per cent among Black and Hispanic males to highs of 87 to 92 per cent among White, non-Hispanic and Asian women. A better understanding of the forces driving these large differences in two year persistence rates across these gender/race-ethnic groups is needed if the long run college graduation goals of Mayor Menino’s Success Boston initiative are to be achieved. Can the mentoring and case management services of the Success Boston programs contribute to an improvement in the college persistence rates of Black and Hispanic males attending four year colleges? 10 Chart 4: Two Year Persistence Rates of Four Year College Attendees by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group, BPS Class of 2009 Given both their higher enrollment rates in four year colleges and their higher two year persistence rates, the number of BPS female graduates from the Class of 2009 who achieved these two goals substantially exceeded the number of males. There were 780 women who attended a four year college in the fall of 2009 and were still enrolled in a four year college two years later versus only 479 men, ratio of 163 women per 100 men. Table 9: The Numbers of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 Enrolled in a Four Year College in the Fall Who Persisted in College Through the Fall Two Years Later by Gender and Race/Ethnic Group Race/Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 118 145 123 Black 154 267 173 Hispanic 87 180 207 White, not Hispanic 127 179 141 Total 479 780 163 86.1 92.4 66.1 77.2 65.4 75.3 76.6 86.5 60 70 80 90 100 Asian Men Asian Women Black Men Black Women Hispanic Men Hispanic Women White Men White Women P er C en t Gender/Race-Ethnic Group 11 Again, in each of the four major race-ethnic groups, we find a higher number of women who achieved both of these educational goals than men. The values of these gender ratios, however, did vary fairly widely across the race-ethnic group ranging from 123 per 100 among Asians to 173 per 100 among Black BPS graduates to a high of 207 per 100 among Hispanics. Chart 5: Ratio of Female to Male BPS Graduates from the Class of 2009 Who Enrolled in a Four-Year College in the Fall of 2009 and Persisted in College Through the Fall of 2011 by Race-Ethnic Group The success rates of Class of 2009 BPS high school graduates in achieving these two educational milestones can now be calculated for each gender and race-ethnic group. Among all male graduates, only 28 of every 100 met these two goals versus 40 of every 100 among women graduates from the Class of 2009. Across the eight gender/race-ethnic groups, the share of graduates achieving these two college enrollment and persistence goals ranged from lows of 18 per 100 among Hispanic men and 21 per 100 among Black men to highs of 62 per 100 among White women and 68 per 100 among Asian women (Chart 6). The Asian women performance on this measure was nearly four times as high as that of Hispanic males. These gaps need to be considerably narrowed in the years ahead if the goals of the Mayor’s Success Boston Initiative are to be achieved, particularly given the growth in the Hispanic student share of the Boston public schools. 123 141 173 207 100 150 200 250 Asian White, not Hispanic Black Hispanic R a ti o Race/Ethnic Group 12 Chart 6: The Share of BPS High School Graduates from the Class of 2009 Who Enrolled in A Four Year College Upon Graduation and Persisted for Two Years by Gender/Race-Ethnic Group Historical Trends in the Number of Four Year College Graduates by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group among BPS High School Graduates, Classes of 2000- 2005 To provide some historical perspective on the findings of the four year college enrollment and persistence experiences for BPS Class of 2009 graduates, we used the supplemented NSC data bases on the numbers of graduates from the Classes of 2000, 2003, and 2005 who had obtained a four year college degree by the end of calendar year 2010 or 2011. 5 The numbers of bachelor degrees obtained by men and women both overall and in each gender/race-ethnic group also were estimated to allow comparisons with the above findings for BPS Class of 2009 graduates who had enrolled in a four year college in the fall of 2009 and persisted in college through the fall of 2011. Findings on the number of BPS graduates from the Class of 2010 who had obtained a bachelor’s degree by December 2010, more than ten years after their graduation from high school, are displayed in Table 10. The number of women with a bachelor’s degree by December 5 We refer to this data base as the “supplemented NSC” data base since a number of colleges and universities in Massachusetts who were not member of the National Clearinghouse in earlier years provided the Center for Labor Market Studies with data on college enrollment and graduation. 18 21 30 33 47 61 62 68 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Hispanic Men Black Men Hispanic Women Black Women White Men Asian Men White Women Asian Women P er C en t Gender/Race-Ethnic Group 13 2010 was 488 versus only 302 for men, yielding a ratio of 162 bachelor degrees for women for every 100 men. This ratio is basically identical to the gender gap for BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 who had enrolled in a four year college in the fall of 2009 and persisted in college through the fall of 2011. The gender gaps in bachelor degree attainment for the Class of 2000 varied quite widely across race-ethnic groups, varying in size from 107 per 100 among Asians to 225 per 100 among Blacks and 280 among Hispanics. Table 10: The Number of Four Year College Graduates from the BPS Class of 2000 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group (as of December 2010) Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women per 100 Men Asian 75 80 107 Black 92 207 225 Hispanic 25 70 280 White, not Hispanic 109 131 120 Total 302 488 162 The findings of our analysis of the number of Bachelor degrees obtained by BPS graduates from the Class of 2003 as of December 2011 by race-ethnic group are displayed in Table 11. The BPS graduating Class of 2003 was the first class that had to pass the MCAS exam to receive a regular high school diploma. The ratio of female to male high school graduates jumped sharply in that year to a high of 129 per 100. The number of female graduates who had earned a Bachelor’s degree by the end of 2010 was 576 or nearly twice as high as the number of males receiving such a degree (Table 11). In each race-ethnic group, except Hispanics, the gender gap divide in bachelor’s degrees awarded rose sharply between 2000 and 2003. The gender ratios ranged from 145 bachelor degrees for women to 100 for men among Asians to 266 bachelor degrees for women per 100 men among Black BPS graduates from the Class of 2003. 14 Table 11: The Number of Four-Year College Graduates From the Boston Public Schools Class of 2003 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group as of December 2011 Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 77 112 145 Black 89 237 266 Hispanic 33 73 221 White, not Hispanic 98 154 157 Total 297 576 194 An analysis of National Student Clearinghouse data for the BPS Class of 2005 through December 2011 revealed that gender disparities in bachelor degree attainment had declined from the very high levels in 2003 but were about identical to those in 2000 (Table 12). By December 2011, 522 female graduates from the Class of 2005 had earned a bachelor’s degree versus only 316 men, yielding an overall ratio of 165 women per 100 men with a bachelor’s degree. The gender disparities for each race-ethnic group, except Asians, had declined over this time period but still remained quite high. The ratios of women per 100 men with a bachelor’s degree by the end of 2011 varied from 139 among White, non-Hispanics to 148 among Asians, 192 among Blacks, and 211 among Hispanics. Table 12: The Number of Four-Year College Graduates from the Boston Public School Class of 2005 by Gender and Race-Ethnic Groups as of December 2011 Race-Ethnic Group (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women Per 100 Men Asian 82 121 148 Black 93 179 192 Hispanic 35 74 211 White, not Hispanic 106 147 139 Total 316 522 165 15 The Forces Underlying the Large Gender Disparities in Enrollment and Persistence in Four Year Colleges for the BPS Graduating Class of 2009 Two years after graduating from high school in the late spring of 2009, we again find a very large gap between the numbers of male and female BPS high school graduates who enrolled in a four year college immediately after graduation and persisted through the first two years. There were 163 women enrolled in a four year college per 100 men overall and among Blacks and Hispanics the ratios were an even larger 173 and 207, respectively. As noted above, these gender disparities reflect the joint outcomes of a variety of behaviors, including the higher rate of high school graduation among women, their higher college enrollment rate upon graduation, their greater likelihood of enrolling in a four year college or university, and their higher rate of persistence in college through the first two years. The likelihood of enrolling in college immediately upon graduation from high school is significantly influenced by the type of high school one attended, one’s reading and math proficiencies as measured by the MCAS tests, and one’s work behavior in high school. On several of these variables, male graduates tended to lag behind their female peers. For example, the number of women from the graduating Class of 2009 who attended one of the city’s three exam schools was 45% higher than the number of male graduates (See Table 13). There were 509 female graduates from those three high schools versus only 351 men. In the city’s pilot high schools, there were 377 female graduates versus 316 men, a ratio of 119 women per 100 male graduates. Among Blacks and Hispanics, the ratios were even higher at 123 and 141, respectively. Table 13: Comparisons of the Number of Female and Male BPS High School Graduates from the Exam Schools and Pilot Schools, Class of 2009 Gender (A) Exam Schools (B) Pilot Schools (C) Pilot Schools, Black (D) Pilot Schools, Hispanic Female 509 377 185 143 Male 351 316 150 102 Number of Women Per 100 Men 145 119 123 141 16 Women also tended to outperform men on the MCAS tests, especially in reading. Approximately 55% of the female graduates from the Class of 2009 scored proficient or advanced on the reading test versus only 41% of the men (Table 14). The gaps in performance on achieving a proficient or advanced rating on the MCAS math test were smaller in size but still favored women by about 3 to 4 percentage points. Table 14: The Distribution of Class of 2009 Male and Female Boston Public School Graduates by Their Scores on the MCAS Reading Test (in %) MCAS Reading Score (A) Men (B) Women (C) Women – Men Missing 12 10 -2 Failed 9 6 -3 Need Improvement 39 29 -10 Proficient 35 40 +5 Advanced 6 15 +9 To identify the influence of these school attendance, test score performance, and in- school work behaviors on the college attendance behavior of males from the Class of 2009, we estimated a set of linear probability models of the college attendance decision. The dependent variable in this model is a dichotomous (dummy) variable that takes on the value of 1 if the respondent was enrolled in college at the time of the spring 2010 follow-up survey and 0 if not enrolled. The predictor variables included the race-ethnic backgrounds of these young men, the type of high school attended, their last recorded MCAS reading test score, and their summer and senior year work behaviors. 6 Key findings are displayed in Table 15. 6 Another set of models which substituted MCAS math scores for the reading scores came to very similar conclusions. Higher math scores have slightly larger positive effects on college attendance. 17 Table 15: Findings of the Linear Probability Model of the Probability of a Male BPS High School Graduate from the Class of 2009 Attending College in the first Year Following Graduation Variables (A) Coefficient (B) Stat. Sig. Constant .490 *** Asian .152 *** Black .082 ** Hispanic .042 -- Att Exam School .266 *** Att Pilot School .123 *** MCAS Read/Failed -.063 *** MCAS Read Prof/Adv. .075 *** Worked 2 or More Summers .053 ** Worked 1-13 Weeks Senior Year .132 ** Worked More than 13 Weeks .002 -- Notes: *** sig. .01; ** sig. .05; * sig. 10. Male students who attended either one of the three exam schools or a pilot high school were significantly more likely to attend college upon graduation from high school and especially a four year college. 7 The estimated exam school effect was quite substantial at nearly 27 percentage points versus 12 percentage points for attending a pilot high school. Failure to pass the MCAS test was associated with a statistically significant negative 6 percentage point lower probability of attending college 8 while achieving a proficient or advanced score on the MCAS reading test would raise the probability of attending college by close to 8 percentage points. Those males who worked 2 or more summers during the high school years were significantly more likely to attend college than their peers with very limited to no summer job experience, and those who worked between 1 and 13 weeks during the senior year were 13 percentage points more likely to attend college than their peers with no senior year work experience. By increasing the likelihood that males will gain exposure to the job market during their senior year, school-to-career programs can indirectly raise prospects for attending college 7 These are ceteris paribus results, i.e., holding the values of all other predictors constant. 8 Some students from special education backgrounds can appeal to graduate with a regular diploma even though they failed the MCAS as long as they meet other academic and behavioral requirements. 18 among men. Combining mentorship and strong career exposure with such work may be able to achieve even larger impacts on college attendance. While each of the above factors help explain some of the gaps in college attendance between men and women, they do not account for all of the difference. In a set of separate regression models of the probability of attending college in the fall immediately following graduation from high school that included observations for both men and women, we found that being a male, ceteris paribus, significantly reduced the probability of going to college. For the combined pool of graduates (all race-ethnic groups and both genders), we estimated that being a male reduced the probability of initial college attendance by 9 percentage points. The male variable was significant and quite large (8 to 13 percentage points) in the separate models for Black, Hispanic, and White, non-Hispanic graduates but not in the model for Asians. Clearly, there are other forces at work reducing the college going propensity of BPS males. Similar analysis of college persistence rates of BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 shows modest negative effects of being male on persisting in college for one or two years. Table 16: Estimated Independent Impact of Being Male on the Probability of Attending College in the First Year Following Graduation from High School, BPS Class of 2009 Coefficient on Male Variable (A) All (B) Asian (C) Black (D) Hispanic (E) White Male -.091*** .029 -.083*** -.113*** -.135*** Notes: *** sig. .01; ** sig. .05. What Can Be Done? The continued large gender disparities in college attendance and persistence, especially in four year colleges, has a number of important consequences for both the attainment of Mayor Menino’s Success Boston college completion goals as well as for other local educational goals, including an increase in the high school graduation rate and a continued rise in college enrollment. Encouraging more males to complete high school, attend college or some post- secondary training program, and graduate from such programs is also critical to efforts to improve the future living standards of young adult males, young families, and children in the city of Boston and throughout the state. Young males with no high school diploma and those with a 19 diploma but no post-secondary schooling have faced deteriorating employment and earnings prospects over the past decade. Their labor market difficulties have reduced their ability to form independent households, to marry, and to support their children. These developments in turn have increased their income inadequacy problems, reduced tax revenues, increased government cash and in-kind transfers, expanded the pool of jail and prison inmates, and placed more of the city’s children in economic and educational jeopardy. Children raised in low income, single parent families have lower cognitive abilities, are more likely to fall behind their peers in school, to drop out of high school, and to neither attend college nor obtain a college degree when they do graduate from high school. Successful strategies must be pursued on several different fronts to reduce the steep gender disparities in educational outcomes. First, the high school graduation rate of male BPS students must be substantially improved, especially among Black and Hispanic men. Some recent progress has been achieved, but much more work needs to be done. Efforts to support the passage and implementation of the Massachusetts legislature’s bill on Dropout Recovery and Prevention should be promoted. Second, sustained efforts must be made to improve the reading, math, writing, and science proficiencies of many male high school students. Weak MCAS performance in math and reading increases the probabilities of dropping out of high school, of not attending college upon graduation from high school, especially a four year college, and of failing to persist in college through graduation. A BPS first year college student with reading/math MCAS scores in the category “needs improvement” had only a 53% probability of persisting in college for two years versus a 90% probability for a student with an advanced proficiency in reading and math. Third, more male high school students must be prepared for and able to successfully persist in the city’s exam schools and its pilot high schools. There are large gender gaps in enrollments and graduates from such high schools. The high positive, post-secondary outcomes from completing high school in such schools calls for action to improve male representation, and policies to expand overall enrollment in such schools should be promoted. Efforts must be made to improve the college enrollment rates of male BPS graduates, especially in the non-exam high schools. The ability of Success Boston programs to improve college enrollments and college persistence should be continuously evaluated. Preliminary 20 evidence suggests very favorable impacts on college persistence in the first and second years following initial enrollment, especially for males. These are very promising preliminary results that need to be maintained and replicated for future cohorts. Further research on the impacts of such programs in improving college graduation among participants is needed.
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Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
The
The
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
2013-10
2013-10
CLMS
CLMS
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196090
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196090
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196090
CLMS
The
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
The Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
labor market problems of massachusetts workers in the recovery from the great recession the great socioeconomic divergence
The
2013/10/01
The Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
2013-10
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Sum, Andrew
info:fedora/afmodel:CoreFile
info:fedora/neu:rx914j893
UThe Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence The Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts’ Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence Prepared by: Andrew Sum Ishwar Khatiwada Walter McHugh Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University October 2013 CENTER FOR LABOR MARKET STUDIES Northeastern University Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 Labor Force, Unemployment, and Other Labor Underutilization Concepts, Measures, and Data Sources ................................................................................................................................4 Unemployment Problems Among Massachusetts Workers .............................................................6 Underemployment Problems among Massachusetts Workers .......................................................10 The Problems of Hidden Unemployment among Massachusetts Workers ...................................13 Labor Underutilization Problems Among Massachusetts Workers and Their Growing Disparities Across Educational and Income Groups: The End of the Average as a Basis for Understanding and Policy Making ......................................................................................16 1 “There is no problem so big that it cannot be run away from.” Richard Bach, Illusions: The Adventures of a Reluctant Messiah “For the measure that you measure with, shall be measured back unto you.” Luke, Chapter 6 verse 38. Introduction The labor markets of both the state and the nation performed quite poorly over the past 12 years (2000-2012). Some economists and other social science analysts have referred to the decade of 2000-2010 as the “Lost Decade”. After achieving full employment in 2000, the nation experienced a recession in early 2001 that lasted for 8 months and then was followed by a largely jobless recovery for close to two years. Four years of job growth were then followed by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and a slow growing jobs recovery that sharply increased the national unemployment rate and other labor underutilization problems through 2010.1 The aggregate numbers of payroll jobs for the nation over the entire 2000-2010 decade fell by approximately 1.9 million versus gains of 22.4 million in the 1990s decade and close to 19 million jobs in the 1980’s. This was the worst job creating performance in the nation during the entire post-World War Two era. The nation began the decade with an unemployment rate of only 4.0% in 2000, the lowest unemployment rate since 1969, but ended the decade with an unemployment rate of 9.6%, tied with 1982 and 1983 as the highest unemployment rates in the nation’s post-World War Two history.2 The employment recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009 had left many U.S. workers behind, with lower income workers continuing to face far more severe unemployment, underemployment, and other labor underutilization problems then their more affluent counterparts.3 The less educated and lower income workers were being left far behind in the labor market as of 2011. A very large share of the income gains generated by the recovery were not going to workers in the form of higher wages or annual earnings, but to corporate profits and to capital gains recipients dominated by those at the top one percent of the income 1 See: The National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, www.nber.org/cycles. 2 For an overview of the national unemployment rates from 1947 to 2000, see: U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President: February 2002. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 2002. 3 See: “Five Years Later: How the Great Recession Changed America,” The Week, September 27, 2013. 2 distribution.4 Employment gains and labor market problems were very unevenly shared across household income groups with the gaps between the affluent and the low income population rising over time. Massachusetts’ labor markets performed equally as badly and in some cases even more poorly than the nation’s. By the final quarter of 2012, the state had still not yet matched the number of payroll jobs it had generated in the first quarter of 2001, the previous historic high jobs count. In 2000, the state’s unemployment rate was only 2.7%, the third lowest state unemployment rate in the entire country. By 2010, the unemployment rate had risen to 8.5%, more than three times as high as that of 2000 and ranking only 20th lowest, tied with three other states. A serious understanding of the labor market problems of Massachusetts and U.S. residents requires going well beyond the official unemployment statistics to include problems of underemployment, malemployment, and other measures of labor underutilization. It also requires going well beyond the average number and incidence of such problems to include a careful examination of the distribution of such labor market problems among educational attainment and household income groups in the state.5 This paper is devoted to such a more rigorous analysis of the size and incidence of alternative labor market problems among Massachusetts workers in 2012-13, with comparisons dating back to 2000. We will show that combined labor underutilization problems among state workers have increased by a substantial degree over the past 12-13 years and that the distribution of such labor market problems has become far more unequal across key socioeconomic groups of workers, as represented by their educational attainment and household income group. These widening socioeconomic disparities in labor market problems have contributed in an important way to the growth of earnings and income inequality in our state over the past decade. We are no longer a true “Commonwealth” and the consequences are quite severe. Chart 1: 4 See: Hope Yen, “Rich-Poor Employment Gap Now Widest on Record,” Huffington Post, September 16, 2013, www.huffingtonpost.com. 5 For a more careful explanation of these labor underutilization measures, see: Andrew Sum and Ishwar Khatiwada, “Endnotes: Going Beyond the Unemployment Statistics: The Case for Multiple Measures of Labor Underutilization”, Mass Benchmarks, 2012, Volume 14, Issue 2, pp. 19-24. 3 Measuring the Civilian Labor Force, the Employed and Unemployed, and the Underutilized Labor Force in Massachusetts Civilian Labor = Employed + Unemployed Force Unemployment = Unemployed / Civilian Labor Force Rate Underemployment = Underemployed / Employed Rate Hidden Hidden Adjusted Unemployment = Unemployed / Labor Rate Force Underutilized = Unemployed + Underemployed + Hidden Labor Force Unemployed Adjusted = Civilian Labor + Hidden Labor Force Force Unemployed Labor Force = Underutilized / Adjusted Underutilization Labor Force Labor Force Rate 4 Labor Force, Unemployment, and Other Labor Underutilization Concepts, Measures, and Data Sources All of the empirical findings appearing in this paper are based on data collected as part of the monthly national Current Population Survey (CPS).6 The CPS survey conducts interviews with a representative sample of households in every state with approximately 820 households per month in Massachusetts and 60,000 across the nation. Labor force, employment, and labor underutilization data are collected from each household resident aged 16 and older. Over the January 2012 – August 2013 time period (a 20 month period), labor force data were obtained for just under 34,000 respondents in Massachusetts.7 At various points throughout this paper, we compare the results for Massachusetts workers over the 2012-2013 time period with those for other years back to 2000. These findings from the CPS interviews are used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to classify each respondent into one of three mutually exclusive categories: the employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labor force (see Chart 1). To be classified as employed, an individual must have either worked for one or more hours for pay or profit in the reference week, had a job from which they were temporarily absent due to a temporary illness, the weather, personal vacation, or an industrial dispute at the work place, or worked for a family owned business for 15 or more hours without pay.8 The unemployed are those persons who did no work for pay or profit in the reference week, but had actively looked for a job in the past four weeks, and could have taken a job if one were offered to her or him. Those persons who were not classified as either employed or unemployed are placed into the not in labor force category. As will be noted below, however, there is a fairly sizeable group of people in this not-in-labor-force population who express an interest in immediate employment at the time of the survey. The estimates of the numbers of the employed and unemployed are combined to form an estimate of the civilian labor force. By dividing the number of unemployed persons by the civilian labor force, an estimate of the unemployment rate can be obtained. The unemployment 6 The CPS is a monthly household survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For a review of the key purposes and features of the monthly Current Population Survey and key labor force activity measure and labor market problems, see: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation: August 2013, Washington, D.C., September 2013. 7 These are not 34,000 different individuals. The CPS survey operates on a rotation group cycle. Once a household is selected for participation in the survey, it is interviewed for 4 months, dropped for 8 months, then re-interviewed for 4 months, and then dropped from the survey. 8 The reference week of the survey is the calendar week containing the 12th day of the month. The CPS survey is administered during the week containing the 19th day of the month. 5 rate is the most widely cited measure of labor underutilization in the media, but it covers only a fraction of the labor market problems encountered by both state and national workers. A second labor market problem is that of underemployment (see Chart 1). An underemployed person is one who worked part time (under 35 hours in the reference week) but desired full time work and was available to take a full time job.9 Nationally the numbers of underemployed increased strongly during the Great Recession and remained high in the early years of the recovery from the recession. On average, the underemployed typically work only 21-22 hours per week, barely half the number of hours worked by the full time employed and they receive less per hour in wages than comparable full time workers. The underemployed, thus, earn less than half the mean weekly earnings of their comparable full time employed peers. Recent national research evidence has shown that working part time has no statistically significant effect on the long term earnings of workers, both men and women.10 Being underemployed, thus, leads to losses in earnings in both the short and the long run. A third measure of labor underutilization is the so-called labor force reserve or the hidden unemployed.11 These are individuals who have not actively looked for a job in the past four weeks but express a desire for immediate employment at the time of the CPS survey. A subset of this group of the hidden unemployed is referred to by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as the marginally attached. They must have looked for a job at some time in the past 52 weeks. Their numbers are typically only 40% as high as the total number of the hidden unemployed. A subset of the marginally attached is categorized by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as the “discouraged worker.” This group must have cited to the CPS interviewer that the main reason for not actively looking for a job is that they had earlier looked but could not find a job, think no jobs are available, or were too young, too old, or too poorly educated to be hired. The discouraged workers typically constitute only a small fraction (15%) of the total number of hidden unemployed. 9 For an overview and assessment of the rising incidence of underemployment problems during the Great Recession, see: Andrew Sum and Ishwar Khatiwada, “The Nation’s Underemployed in the Great Recession of 2007-2009,” Monthly Labor Review, November 2010, pp. 3-13. 10 For evidence on the limited effectiveness of part time jobs in raising the future wages of U.S. workers, see: (i) Marta Tienda, V. Joseph Hotz, et al., “Employment and Wage Prospects of Black, White, and Hispanic Women,” in Human Resource Economics and Public Policy, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, 2010, pp. 129-160; (ii) Francine Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn, “The Feasibility and Importance of Adding Measures of Actual Experience to Cross-Section Data Collection,” Journal of Labor Economics, Volume 31, Number 2, April 2013, pp. S17-S58. 11 The labor force reserve or hidden unemployed is more than twice as large as the marginally attached labor force. 6 In this paper, we develop a count of the total pool of underutilized workers in Massachusetts.12 The underutilized represent the sum of the official unemployed, the underemployed, and the hidden unemployed. We also estimate a labor underutilization rate. This underutilization rate is calculated by dividing the number of underutilized workers by the adjusted civilian labor force. The adjusted civilian labor force represents the sum of the civilian labor force and the numbers of hidden unemployed. The main objectives of this research report are to provide estimates of four labor underutilization measures (the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate, the hidden unemployment rate, and the labor underutilization rate) for Massachusetts workers and for those in educational attainment groups, household income groups, and combinations of educational attainment/household income groups. We have categorized workers into six household income groups ranging from a low of those with annual incomes under $20,000 to a high of those living in households with incomes above $150,000. Workers also have been assigned to one of six educational attainment groups, ranging from those with no high school diploma/GED credential to those holding a Master’s or Ph.D. degree or a professional degree. Disparities in the incidence of each of the four labor market problems across these educational attainment/household income groups will be presented and highlighted. The size of these disparities in labor market outcomes across socioeconomic groups are enormous today and appear to be historically unprecedented, far higher than those prevailing in the 1990s and especially at the peak of the state labor market boom in 2000. Unemployment Problems Among Massachusetts Workers Time trends in the overall unemployment rates of the state over the 2000-2013 period are displayed in Chart 2. In 2000, at the height of the national labor market boom of the 1992-2000 period, the unemployment rate of the state stood at only 2.7%, its lowest rate ever recorded under the CPS data collection system for states that started in the late 1960s, and was 1.3 percentage points below the national average of 4.0% (see Chart 2). Massachusetts’ unemployment rate in 2000 was the third lowest among the 50 states. Payroll job losses in the state during the 2000- 2003 time period exceeded the rate of decline in the country, helping push the unemployment rate up to 5.8% by 2003, only slightly below that of the nation. Over the ensuing four years, the 12 For a review of the BLS alternative measures of labor underutilization, see: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Unemployment Rate and Beyond: Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization, Washington, D.C., June 2008. 7 state unemployment rate fell, dropping to 4.7% in 2007, approximately identical to that of the U.S. Chart 2: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) in Selected Years, 2000 to 2013¹ (in %) Note (1): The 2013 estimate is based on the first eight months of the CPS household survey from 2013. Monthly estimates were seasonally adjusted using the monthly seasonal adjustment factors from the LAUS survey for the state. During the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the unemployment rate of the state jumped quite dramatically, reaching 8.4% in 2009 and staying near there in 2010. In the U.S., the unemployment rate more than doubled from 4.6% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2010. Following 2010 through 2012, the state unemployment rate improved as the state began to recover nearly all of the payroll jobs it lost during the recession. The state unemployment rate fell to 6.8% in 2012, more than a full percentage point below the national rate of 8.1%. The state ranked 15th lowest on this measure among the 50 states. During the first eight months of 2013, however, the state’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) had climbed back to 7.2%13, and it ranked only 23nd lowest, tied with three other states. The average unemployment rate of Massachusetts workers over the past 20 months has hovered close to 7.0%. Around that average, how much variation do we observe in unemployment rates across workers in different household income and educational attainment 13 During the May-August period, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.7%. 2.7 5.8 4.7 8.4 8.5 6.8 7.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2003 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 % Jan - Aug. 8 groups? Are unemployment rates evenly shared or is there a highly unequal structure of these rates? Findings in Tables 3, 4, and 5 clearly reveal the existence of enormous socioeconomic disparities in unemployment rates among Bay State workers in 2012-2013. Unemployment rates over the 2012-2013 time period varied extremely widely across both household income and educational attainment groups. Unemployment rates were highest by far among the lower income groups of workers and fell steadily and steeply with household income. Massachusetts workers in the lowest income group (under $20,000) faced an unemployment rate of slightly more than 20% with the rate falling to just under 12% for those in the second lowest income group ($20-40,000), to only 7% for those with upper middle incomes and to a low of only 3% for the most affluent group of workers in the state (household incomes above $150,000). The lowest income workers were nearly seven times more likely to be unemployed than the most affluent group of workers in 2012-2013. Chart 3: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) by Household Income Group in 2012- 2013 (in %) Very large disparities in unemployment rates also prevailed across state workers by educational attainment group. Those workers with no high school diploma or GED experienced an unemployment rate of 18%, falling to 9-10 percent for those with a high school diploma or some postsecondary schooling but no college degree, and to a low below 3% for those holding a 19.9 11.7 6.8 5.6 3.6 3.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 9 Master’s, PhD, or professional degree. The least well educated workers in our state were 6 times as likely to be unemployed as the best educated group of workers. Chart 4: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+ by Educational Attainment in 2012-2013 (in %) Massachusetts workers were combined into 36 separate educational attainment/household income groups and unemployment rates were calculated for each of these 36 groups. They ranged from high school dropouts with low incomes (under $20,000) to those with a Master’s degree and the most affluent workers ($150,000+). The unemployment rates for these groups of workers ranged from highs of 22-30 percent for low income workers with only 12 or fewer years of schooling, to 9-12% for lower middle to middle income adults with 12 to 15 years of schooling to lows of 1.6 to 2.6% for those adults in households with incomes over $100,000 holding a bachelor’s or higher degree. The state’s less well educated, low income workers faced unemployment rates equivalent to those of the U.S. in the Great Depression of the 1930s, those with modest schooling and low middle to middle incomes faced unemployment rates equivalent to the Great Recession while the state’s best educated and most affluent workers operated in a super full-employment environment. The average unemployment rate has little operational meaning in such a labor market environment. 18.5 9.5 9.0 5.5 4.5 3.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 <12 or 12, no GED or diploma H.S. Diploma / GED 13-15 Years Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Master's or Higher Degree % Educational Attainment 10 Chart 5: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts’ Workers in Selected Educational Attainment / Household Income Groups in 2012-2013 (in %) Underemployment Problems among Massachusetts Workers Problems of underemployment among Massachusetts workers have risen substantially in recent years and have nearly tripled in size since 2000. During 2000, there were only 56,000 underemployed workers in the state representing only 1.7% of the employed. Their numbers increased over the next two years, rising to 88,000 as a consequence of the recession of 2001 and the jobless recovery of 2002 and 2003. During the job growth period from 2004 to 2007, the number of underemployed declined to 66,000 by the latter year, representing only 2.1% of the employed. Over the next four years, the pool of underemployed exploded, rising to 200,000 in 2011 and accounting for 6.1% of the employed. Over the January 2012 – August 2013 period, the average monthly number of underemployed workers was 175,000 yielding an underemployment rate of 5.4%. The incidence of underemployment problems among the state’s workers in 2012-2013 varied quite widely across both household income and educational attainment groups (Charts 6 and 7). Workers from the lowest income families in the state encountered an underemployment rate of 18.0%. This rate fell steadily and strongly with household income, dropping slightly 29.8 21.7 11.7 9.0 2.6 1.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, <20 HS Diploma, 20-40 1-3 Years of College / 40- 75 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income / Educational Attainment 11 below 8% for those in the $20-40,000 income category, to 3% for those with upper middle incomes in the $75-100,000 category, and to a low of just 2.3% for those in the most affluent families ($150,000+). Underemployment rates of workers in the lowest income category were eight times as high as those in the most affluent groups of families. Chart 6: Underemployment Rates of Employed Workers (16+) in Household Income Groups, 2012-2013 (in %) Underemployment rates also were strongly associated with the educational attainment of workers. Those workers lacking a high school diploma/GED credential faced an underemployment rate of nearly 11%, followed closely by an 8% underemployment rate among employed high school graduates. The underemployment rate fell to 5.4% for those workers with an Associate’s degree and to a low of only 2% for those with a Master’s or higher degree. The least well educated group of workers was between five and six times more likely than the best educated group to experience an underemployment problem in 2012-2013. 17.6 9.8 5.8 3.1 2.6 2.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 12 Chart 7: Underemployment Rates of Employed Massachusetts Workers by Educational Attainment, 2012- 2013 (in %) The underemployment rates of Massachusetts workers in combined educational attainment / household income groups differed to an amazingly high degree. Low income workers who lacked a high school diploma/GED credential were characterized by an underemployment rate of 25%. Clearly, underemployment was a major factor underlying their low income status. The rate of underemployment fell to 12% for low middle income workers with a high school diploma, to 5% for employed Associate degree holders from slightly upper middle income families to a low of 1% for workers with a Master’s or higher degree from families with a household income above $100,000. The least well educated, low income group of workers was 25 times as likely as the most affluent, best educated workers of the state to be underemployed in 2012-2013. 10.7 7.8 7.7 5.4 3.4 2.1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. diploma or GED 13-15 years no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's or higher % Educational Attainment 13 Chart 8: Underemployment Rates of Employed Massachusetts Workers in Selected Educational Attainment and Household Income Groups, 2012-2013 (in %) The Problems of Hidden Unemployment among Massachusetts Workers Nationally, the number of persons in the ranks of the hidden unemployed has been quite cyclically sensitive, rising sharply both during the Great Recession and the early stages of the economic recovery. Similar patterns have prevailed in Massachusetts. During 2000, only 57,000 working-age individuals in our state or 1.7% of the adjusted civilian labor force were members of the hidden unemployed. Their numbers increased to 74,000 or 2.1% of the civilian labor force in 2003 and increased further to 88,000 by 2007. In 2011, their ranks had risen to 118,000 or 3.3% by the state’s resident labor force. Over the January 2012 – August 2013 period, on average there were 113,000 individual persons in the pool of the hidden unemployed, equivalent to 3.1% of the state’s adjusted civilian labor force.14 The incidence of hidden unemployment problems in our state during the 2012-2013 time period varied quite substantially across both household income and educational attainment groups (see Charts 9 and 10). Slightly more than 9% of the adjusted labor force participants from low income families were members of the hidden unemployed. This ratio fell to 5.4% for 14 According to the findings of the 2013 CPS surveys through August, nearly 4.2% of the adjusted civilian labor force in the state were members of the labor force reserve, the 17th highest such ratio among the 50 states. 25.0 11.7 6.5 4.9 2.0 1.1 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, <20 HS Diploma, 20-40 1-3 Years of College / 40- 75 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income / Educational Attainment 14 low middle income labor force participants to 2.3% for those with incomes modestly above the median household income and to a low of 1.2% for those labor force participants living in the highest income households. The lowest income labor force participants were seven times as likely to be members of the labor force reserve as were members of the state’s most affluent households (see Chart 9). Chart 9: Hidden Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers in the Adjusted Labor Force by Household Income, 2012-2013 (in %) These hidden unemployment problems also were strongly associated with the educational backgrounds of members of the state’s adjusted labor force. The less educated members of the resident labor force were far more likely to be found in the ranks of the hidden unemployed. More than 10% of those working-age adults without a high school diploma were members of the labor force reserve versus only 4% of high school graduates, nearly 2% of Associate degree holders, and only 1% of those labor force participants with a Master’s or higher degree. Those adults without a high school diploma were 9 times as likely to be a member of the hidden unemployed as their fellow residents with a Master’s or higher degree. 9.2 5.4 2.8 2.3 1.4 1.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 15 Chart 10: Hidden Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers in the Adjusted Labor Force by Educational Attainment, 2012-2013 (in %) The distribution of hidden unemployment rates among workers in combinations of educational attainment/household income groups was extraordinarily wide. Over 14% of high school dropouts from low income households were members of the hidden unemployed versus only 6% of high school graduates from low middle income families and under 1% of those with Bachelor’s or higher degrees from households with incomes above $100,000. The share of low income, high school dropout labor force participants that were members of the hidden unemployed was 29 times as high as that of those labor force members with advanced degrees who came from upper income families. 10.2 3.8 4.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. diploma or GED 13-15 years no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's or higher % Educational Attainment 16 Chart 11: Hidden Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers in the Adjusted Labor Force in Selected Educational Attainment and Household Income Groups, 2012-2013 (in %) Labor Underutilization Problems Among Massachusetts Workers and Their Growing Disparities Across Educational and Income Groups: The End of the Average15 as a Basis for Understanding and Policy Making Our final set of measures on the labor market problems confronting Massachusetts’ workers consists of their combined labor underutilization rate. As discussed earlier in this paper, the underutilized labor pool consists of the unemployed, the underemployed, and the hidden unemployed. The pool of underutilized workers has varied widely in both our state and the nation over the past 12 years with large increases taking place during and after the Great Recession of 2007-09. The increased incidence of underutilization problems also has been accompanied by widening gaps in these rates across income and education groups. These findings make starkly clear the need to “end the average” as a measure for both describing and understanding labor market problems whether unemployment, underemployment, or labor underutilization and developing appropriate policy responses. 15 Average is Over is the title of a recent book by Tyler Cowen on moving the American economy forward. It was also the title of a chapter in the book That Used to Be Us by Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum. See: Tyler Cowen, Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation, Dutton Press, New York City, 2013. 14.4 6.0 4.3 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, 20-40 1-3 Years of College / 40- 75 Assoc. Degree, 75- 100 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income / Educational Attainment 17 During calendar year 2000, there were only 205,000 underutilized workers in Massachusetts, yielding an annual average underutilization rate of 6.5%. This was the third lowest underutilization rate among the 50 states during that year. The state’s underutilization rate and its relative ranking has deteriorated substantially since then. (see Chart 12). In the recessionary environment of 2000-2003, the overall labor underutilization rate of the state increased sharply to 10.0% by 2003. It then fell modestly over the next four years, dropping to 9.0% in 2007. During the Great Recession, the underutilization rate exploded, hitting 15.6% in 2009 and remaining in that general range in 2010 and 2011 when it reached 15.7%. On average, during the January 2012-August 2013 time period, there were 535,000 underutilized workers in our state, yielding an underutilization rate of 14.8%.16 Our rank among the 50 states was now only 20th lowest. Chart 12: The Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) in 2000, 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2012-2013 (in %) The labor underutilization rates of the state’s workers in 2012-2013 differed considerably across household income groups. (see Chart 13). The lowest income group of workers faced an underutilization rate of nearly 40%. This rate fell to 25% for the second lowest income group ($20,000-40,000), and then dropped steadily downward as the household’s income rose, dropping to 11% for those with incomes in the middle to upper middle income segment and to a low of 6.7% for those in the highest household income group. The lowest income group of 16During the May-August period of 2013, there was a sharp tick upward in the number of underutilized workers in Massachusetts. The number rose close to 580,000. 6.1 10.0 9.0 15.7 14.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2003 2007 2011 2012-2013 % 18 workers (nearly 300,000 such workers in this group) experienced an underutilization rate that was six times as high as that of the most affluent group of workers. Chart 13: Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) by Household Income in 2012- 2013 (in %) Labor underutilization rates in Massachusetts also ranged widely across the six educational groups in 2012-2013. The higher the level of one’s educational attainment, the lower was the rate of underutilization that they experienced. Nearly 35% of those workers lacking a high school diploma were underutilized versus 1 of every 5 high school graduates and those with one or more years of post-secondary schooling but no college degree. At the upper end of the educational distribution, underutilization rates were 9% for bachelor degree holders and 6% for those with a Master’s or more advanced degree. The least well educated group of workers encountered a labor underutilization rate that was six times higher than that of the best educated group. (see Chart 14). 40.1 24.9 14.6 10.6 7.5 6.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 19 Chart 14: Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) by Educational Attainment in 2012-2013 (in %) Finally, we estimated the incidence of labor underutilization problems among groups of workers classified by their educational attainment/household income. Findings for selected groups of these workers from the top to the bottom of the labor underutilization rate distribution are displayed in Chart 15. High school dropouts from low income families faced the highest underutilization rate at 55%. High school graduates from this low income group also fared quite poorly with an underutilization rate of just under 41%. Nearly 27% of high school graduates from the second lowest income group were underutilized in 2012-2013. The incidence of such problems fell steeply for the best educated, more affluent groups of workers. Those workers with a Bachelor’s degree and a household income over $100,000 had an underutilization rate of only 5% that fell to 3% if the worker held a Master’s or higher degree. 34.7 19.8 20.0 12.3 9.0 6.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. diploma or GED Some college no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's or higher % Educational Attainment 20 Chart 15: Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) in Selected Educational Attainment and Household Income Groups 2012-2013 (in %) The least well educated, low income workers in Massachusetts were characterized by an underutilization rate that was 18 times higher than that of their best educated peers from the state’s most affluent families. The absolute size of the gap (in percentage points) between the labor underutilization rates of these two groups rose from 23 percentage points in 2000 to 52 percentage points in 2012-2013. Labor market problems are today characterized by a massive degree of socioeconomic inequality. Welcome to the Uncommonwealth of Massachusetts! 54.9 26.7 18.6 5.3 3.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, 20- 40 13-15 years / 40- 75 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income (in 1000s) / Educational Attainment
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Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
The
The
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
2013-10
2013-10
CLMS
CLMS
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196090
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196090
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196090
CLMS
The
Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
The Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
labor market problems of massachusetts workers in the recovery from the great recession the great socioeconomic divergence
The
2013/10/01
The Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts' Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence
2013-10
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
McHugh, Walter
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Sum, Andrew
info:fedora/afmodel:CoreFile
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UThe Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence The Labor Market Problems of Massachusetts’ Workers in the Recovery from the Great Recession: The Great Socioeconomic Divergence Prepared by: Andrew Sum Ishwar Khatiwada Walter McHugh Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University October 2013 CENTER FOR LABOR MARKET STUDIES Northeastern University Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 Labor Force, Unemployment, and Other Labor Underutilization Concepts, Measures, and Data Sources ................................................................................................................................4 Unemployment Problems Among Massachusetts Workers .............................................................6 Underemployment Problems among Massachusetts Workers .......................................................10 The Problems of Hidden Unemployment among Massachusetts Workers ...................................13 Labor Underutilization Problems Among Massachusetts Workers and Their Growing Disparities Across Educational and Income Groups: The End of the Average as a Basis for Understanding and Policy Making ......................................................................................16 1 “There is no problem so big that it cannot be run away from.” Richard Bach, Illusions: The Adventures of a Reluctant Messiah “For the measure that you measure with, shall be measured back unto you.” Luke, Chapter 6 verse 38. Introduction The labor markets of both the state and the nation performed quite poorly over the past 12 years (2000-2012). Some economists and other social science analysts have referred to the decade of 2000-2010 as the “Lost Decade”. After achieving full employment in 2000, the nation experienced a recession in early 2001 that lasted for 8 months and then was followed by a largely jobless recovery for close to two years. Four years of job growth were then followed by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and a slow growing jobs recovery that sharply increased the national unemployment rate and other labor underutilization problems through 2010.1 The aggregate numbers of payroll jobs for the nation over the entire 2000-2010 decade fell by approximately 1.9 million versus gains of 22.4 million in the 1990s decade and close to 19 million jobs in the 1980’s. This was the worst job creating performance in the nation during the entire post-World War Two era. The nation began the decade with an unemployment rate of only 4.0% in 2000, the lowest unemployment rate since 1969, but ended the decade with an unemployment rate of 9.6%, tied with 1982 and 1983 as the highest unemployment rates in the nation’s post-World War Two history.2 The employment recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009 had left many U.S. workers behind, with lower income workers continuing to face far more severe unemployment, underemployment, and other labor underutilization problems then their more affluent counterparts.3 The less educated and lower income workers were being left far behind in the labor market as of 2011. A very large share of the income gains generated by the recovery were not going to workers in the form of higher wages or annual earnings, but to corporate profits and to capital gains recipients dominated by those at the top one percent of the income 1 See: The National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, www.nber.org/cycles. 2 For an overview of the national unemployment rates from 1947 to 2000, see: U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President: February 2002. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 2002. 3 See: “Five Years Later: How the Great Recession Changed America,” The Week, September 27, 2013. 2 distribution.4 Employment gains and labor market problems were very unevenly shared across household income groups with the gaps between the affluent and the low income population rising over time. Massachusetts’ labor markets performed equally as badly and in some cases even more poorly than the nation’s. By the final quarter of 2012, the state had still not yet matched the number of payroll jobs it had generated in the first quarter of 2001, the previous historic high jobs count. In 2000, the state’s unemployment rate was only 2.7%, the third lowest state unemployment rate in the entire country. By 2010, the unemployment rate had risen to 8.5%, more than three times as high as that of 2000 and ranking only 20th lowest, tied with three other states. A serious understanding of the labor market problems of Massachusetts and U.S. residents requires going well beyond the official unemployment statistics to include problems of underemployment, malemployment, and other measures of labor underutilization. It also requires going well beyond the average number and incidence of such problems to include a careful examination of the distribution of such labor market problems among educational attainment and household income groups in the state.5 This paper is devoted to such a more rigorous analysis of the size and incidence of alternative labor market problems among Massachusetts workers in 2012-13, with comparisons dating back to 2000. We will show that combined labor underutilization problems among state workers have increased by a substantial degree over the past 12-13 years and that the distribution of such labor market problems has become far more unequal across key socioeconomic groups of workers, as represented by their educational attainment and household income group. These widening socioeconomic disparities in labor market problems have contributed in an important way to the growth of earnings and income inequality in our state over the past decade. We are no longer a true “Commonwealth” and the consequences are quite severe. Chart 1: 4 See: Hope Yen, “Rich-Poor Employment Gap Now Widest on Record,” Huffington Post, September 16, 2013, www.huffingtonpost.com. 5 For a more careful explanation of these labor underutilization measures, see: Andrew Sum and Ishwar Khatiwada, “Endnotes: Going Beyond the Unemployment Statistics: The Case for Multiple Measures of Labor Underutilization”, Mass Benchmarks, 2012, Volume 14, Issue 2, pp. 19-24. 3 Measuring the Civilian Labor Force, the Employed and Unemployed, and the Underutilized Labor Force in Massachusetts Civilian Labor = Employed + Unemployed Force Unemployment = Unemployed / Civilian Labor Force Rate Underemployment = Underemployed / Employed Rate Hidden Hidden Adjusted Unemployment = Unemployed / Labor Rate Force Underutilized = Unemployed + Underemployed + Hidden Labor Force Unemployed Adjusted = Civilian Labor + Hidden Labor Force Force Unemployed Labor Force = Underutilized / Adjusted Underutilization Labor Force Labor Force Rate 4 Labor Force, Unemployment, and Other Labor Underutilization Concepts, Measures, and Data Sources All of the empirical findings appearing in this paper are based on data collected as part of the monthly national Current Population Survey (CPS).6 The CPS survey conducts interviews with a representative sample of households in every state with approximately 820 households per month in Massachusetts and 60,000 across the nation. Labor force, employment, and labor underutilization data are collected from each household resident aged 16 and older. Over the January 2012 – August 2013 time period (a 20 month period), labor force data were obtained for just under 34,000 respondents in Massachusetts.7 At various points throughout this paper, we compare the results for Massachusetts workers over the 2012-2013 time period with those for other years back to 2000. These findings from the CPS interviews are used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to classify each respondent into one of three mutually exclusive categories: the employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labor force (see Chart 1). To be classified as employed, an individual must have either worked for one or more hours for pay or profit in the reference week, had a job from which they were temporarily absent due to a temporary illness, the weather, personal vacation, or an industrial dispute at the work place, or worked for a family owned business for 15 or more hours without pay.8 The unemployed are those persons who did no work for pay or profit in the reference week, but had actively looked for a job in the past four weeks, and could have taken a job if one were offered to her or him. Those persons who were not classified as either employed or unemployed are placed into the not in labor force category. As will be noted below, however, there is a fairly sizeable group of people in this not-in-labor-force population who express an interest in immediate employment at the time of the survey. The estimates of the numbers of the employed and unemployed are combined to form an estimate of the civilian labor force. By dividing the number of unemployed persons by the civilian labor force, an estimate of the unemployment rate can be obtained. The unemployment 6 The CPS is a monthly household survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For a review of the key purposes and features of the monthly Current Population Survey and key labor force activity measure and labor market problems, see: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation: August 2013, Washington, D.C., September 2013. 7 These are not 34,000 different individuals. The CPS survey operates on a rotation group cycle. Once a household is selected for participation in the survey, it is interviewed for 4 months, dropped for 8 months, then re-interviewed for 4 months, and then dropped from the survey. 8 The reference week of the survey is the calendar week containing the 12th day of the month. The CPS survey is administered during the week containing the 19th day of the month. 5 rate is the most widely cited measure of labor underutilization in the media, but it covers only a fraction of the labor market problems encountered by both state and national workers. A second labor market problem is that of underemployment (see Chart 1). An underemployed person is one who worked part time (under 35 hours in the reference week) but desired full time work and was available to take a full time job.9 Nationally the numbers of underemployed increased strongly during the Great Recession and remained high in the early years of the recovery from the recession. On average, the underemployed typically work only 21-22 hours per week, barely half the number of hours worked by the full time employed and they receive less per hour in wages than comparable full time workers. The underemployed, thus, earn less than half the mean weekly earnings of their comparable full time employed peers. Recent national research evidence has shown that working part time has no statistically significant effect on the long term earnings of workers, both men and women.10 Being underemployed, thus, leads to losses in earnings in both the short and the long run. A third measure of labor underutilization is the so-called labor force reserve or the hidden unemployed.11 These are individuals who have not actively looked for a job in the past four weeks but express a desire for immediate employment at the time of the CPS survey. A subset of this group of the hidden unemployed is referred to by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as the marginally attached. They must have looked for a job at some time in the past 52 weeks. Their numbers are typically only 40% as high as the total number of the hidden unemployed. A subset of the marginally attached is categorized by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as the “discouraged worker.” This group must have cited to the CPS interviewer that the main reason for not actively looking for a job is that they had earlier looked but could not find a job, think no jobs are available, or were too young, too old, or too poorly educated to be hired. The discouraged workers typically constitute only a small fraction (15%) of the total number of hidden unemployed. 9 For an overview and assessment of the rising incidence of underemployment problems during the Great Recession, see: Andrew Sum and Ishwar Khatiwada, “The Nation’s Underemployed in the Great Recession of 2007-2009,” Monthly Labor Review, November 2010, pp. 3-13. 10 For evidence on the limited effectiveness of part time jobs in raising the future wages of U.S. workers, see: (i) Marta Tienda, V. Joseph Hotz, et al., “Employment and Wage Prospects of Black, White, and Hispanic Women,” in Human Resource Economics and Public Policy, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, 2010, pp. 129-160; (ii) Francine Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn, “The Feasibility and Importance of Adding Measures of Actual Experience to Cross-Section Data Collection,” Journal of Labor Economics, Volume 31, Number 2, April 2013, pp. S17-S58. 11 The labor force reserve or hidden unemployed is more than twice as large as the marginally attached labor force. 6 In this paper, we develop a count of the total pool of underutilized workers in Massachusetts.12 The underutilized represent the sum of the official unemployed, the underemployed, and the hidden unemployed. We also estimate a labor underutilization rate. This underutilization rate is calculated by dividing the number of underutilized workers by the adjusted civilian labor force. The adjusted civilian labor force represents the sum of the civilian labor force and the numbers of hidden unemployed. The main objectives of this research report are to provide estimates of four labor underutilization measures (the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate, the hidden unemployment rate, and the labor underutilization rate) for Massachusetts workers and for those in educational attainment groups, household income groups, and combinations of educational attainment/household income groups. We have categorized workers into six household income groups ranging from a low of those with annual incomes under $20,000 to a high of those living in households with incomes above $150,000. Workers also have been assigned to one of six educational attainment groups, ranging from those with no high school diploma/GED credential to those holding a Master’s or Ph.D. degree or a professional degree. Disparities in the incidence of each of the four labor market problems across these educational attainment/household income groups will be presented and highlighted. The size of these disparities in labor market outcomes across socioeconomic groups are enormous today and appear to be historically unprecedented, far higher than those prevailing in the 1990s and especially at the peak of the state labor market boom in 2000. Unemployment Problems Among Massachusetts Workers Time trends in the overall unemployment rates of the state over the 2000-2013 period are displayed in Chart 2. In 2000, at the height of the national labor market boom of the 1992-2000 period, the unemployment rate of the state stood at only 2.7%, its lowest rate ever recorded under the CPS data collection system for states that started in the late 1960s, and was 1.3 percentage points below the national average of 4.0% (see Chart 2). Massachusetts’ unemployment rate in 2000 was the third lowest among the 50 states. Payroll job losses in the state during the 2000- 2003 time period exceeded the rate of decline in the country, helping push the unemployment rate up to 5.8% by 2003, only slightly below that of the nation. Over the ensuing four years, the 12 For a review of the BLS alternative measures of labor underutilization, see: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Unemployment Rate and Beyond: Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization, Washington, D.C., June 2008. 7 state unemployment rate fell, dropping to 4.7% in 2007, approximately identical to that of the U.S. Chart 2: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) in Selected Years, 2000 to 2013¹ (in %) Note (1): The 2013 estimate is based on the first eight months of the CPS household survey from 2013. Monthly estimates were seasonally adjusted using the monthly seasonal adjustment factors from the LAUS survey for the state. During the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the unemployment rate of the state jumped quite dramatically, reaching 8.4% in 2009 and staying near there in 2010. In the U.S., the unemployment rate more than doubled from 4.6% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2010. Following 2010 through 2012, the state unemployment rate improved as the state began to recover nearly all of the payroll jobs it lost during the recession. The state unemployment rate fell to 6.8% in 2012, more than a full percentage point below the national rate of 8.1%. The state ranked 15th lowest on this measure among the 50 states. During the first eight months of 2013, however, the state’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) had climbed back to 7.2%13, and it ranked only 23nd lowest, tied with three other states. The average unemployment rate of Massachusetts workers over the past 20 months has hovered close to 7.0%. Around that average, how much variation do we observe in unemployment rates across workers in different household income and educational attainment 13 During the May-August period, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.7%. 2.7 5.8 4.7 8.4 8.5 6.8 7.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2003 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 % Jan - Aug. 8 groups? Are unemployment rates evenly shared or is there a highly unequal structure of these rates? Findings in Tables 3, 4, and 5 clearly reveal the existence of enormous socioeconomic disparities in unemployment rates among Bay State workers in 2012-2013. Unemployment rates over the 2012-2013 time period varied extremely widely across both household income and educational attainment groups. Unemployment rates were highest by far among the lower income groups of workers and fell steadily and steeply with household income. Massachusetts workers in the lowest income group (under $20,000) faced an unemployment rate of slightly more than 20% with the rate falling to just under 12% for those in the second lowest income group ($20-40,000), to only 7% for those with upper middle incomes and to a low of only 3% for the most affluent group of workers in the state (household incomes above $150,000). The lowest income workers were nearly seven times more likely to be unemployed than the most affluent group of workers in 2012-2013. Chart 3: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) by Household Income Group in 2012- 2013 (in %) Very large disparities in unemployment rates also prevailed across state workers by educational attainment group. Those workers with no high school diploma or GED experienced an unemployment rate of 18%, falling to 9-10 percent for those with a high school diploma or some postsecondary schooling but no college degree, and to a low below 3% for those holding a 19.9 11.7 6.8 5.6 3.6 3.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 9 Master’s, PhD, or professional degree. The least well educated workers in our state were 6 times as likely to be unemployed as the best educated group of workers. Chart 4: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+ by Educational Attainment in 2012-2013 (in %) Massachusetts workers were combined into 36 separate educational attainment/household income groups and unemployment rates were calculated for each of these 36 groups. They ranged from high school dropouts with low incomes (under $20,000) to those with a Master’s degree and the most affluent workers ($150,000+). The unemployment rates for these groups of workers ranged from highs of 22-30 percent for low income workers with only 12 or fewer years of schooling, to 9-12% for lower middle to middle income adults with 12 to 15 years of schooling to lows of 1.6 to 2.6% for those adults in households with incomes over $100,000 holding a bachelor’s or higher degree. The state’s less well educated, low income workers faced unemployment rates equivalent to those of the U.S. in the Great Depression of the 1930s, those with modest schooling and low middle to middle incomes faced unemployment rates equivalent to the Great Recession while the state’s best educated and most affluent workers operated in a super full-employment environment. The average unemployment rate has little operational meaning in such a labor market environment. 18.5 9.5 9.0 5.5 4.5 3.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 <12 or 12, no GED or diploma H.S. Diploma / GED 13-15 Years Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Master's or Higher Degree % Educational Attainment 10 Chart 5: Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts’ Workers in Selected Educational Attainment / Household Income Groups in 2012-2013 (in %) Underemployment Problems among Massachusetts Workers Problems of underemployment among Massachusetts workers have risen substantially in recent years and have nearly tripled in size since 2000. During 2000, there were only 56,000 underemployed workers in the state representing only 1.7% of the employed. Their numbers increased over the next two years, rising to 88,000 as a consequence of the recession of 2001 and the jobless recovery of 2002 and 2003. During the job growth period from 2004 to 2007, the number of underemployed declined to 66,000 by the latter year, representing only 2.1% of the employed. Over the next four years, the pool of underemployed exploded, rising to 200,000 in 2011 and accounting for 6.1% of the employed. Over the January 2012 – August 2013 period, the average monthly number of underemployed workers was 175,000 yielding an underemployment rate of 5.4%. The incidence of underemployment problems among the state’s workers in 2012-2013 varied quite widely across both household income and educational attainment groups (Charts 6 and 7). Workers from the lowest income families in the state encountered an underemployment rate of 18.0%. This rate fell steadily and strongly with household income, dropping slightly 29.8 21.7 11.7 9.0 2.6 1.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, <20 HS Diploma, 20-40 1-3 Years of College / 40- 75 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income / Educational Attainment 11 below 8% for those in the $20-40,000 income category, to 3% for those with upper middle incomes in the $75-100,000 category, and to a low of just 2.3% for those in the most affluent families ($150,000+). Underemployment rates of workers in the lowest income category were eight times as high as those in the most affluent groups of families. Chart 6: Underemployment Rates of Employed Workers (16+) in Household Income Groups, 2012-2013 (in %) Underemployment rates also were strongly associated with the educational attainment of workers. Those workers lacking a high school diploma/GED credential faced an underemployment rate of nearly 11%, followed closely by an 8% underemployment rate among employed high school graduates. The underemployment rate fell to 5.4% for those workers with an Associate’s degree and to a low of only 2% for those with a Master’s or higher degree. The least well educated group of workers was between five and six times more likely than the best educated group to experience an underemployment problem in 2012-2013. 17.6 9.8 5.8 3.1 2.6 2.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 12 Chart 7: Underemployment Rates of Employed Massachusetts Workers by Educational Attainment, 2012- 2013 (in %) The underemployment rates of Massachusetts workers in combined educational attainment / household income groups differed to an amazingly high degree. Low income workers who lacked a high school diploma/GED credential were characterized by an underemployment rate of 25%. Clearly, underemployment was a major factor underlying their low income status. The rate of underemployment fell to 12% for low middle income workers with a high school diploma, to 5% for employed Associate degree holders from slightly upper middle income families to a low of 1% for workers with a Master’s or higher degree from families with a household income above $100,000. The least well educated, low income group of workers was 25 times as likely as the most affluent, best educated workers of the state to be underemployed in 2012-2013. 10.7 7.8 7.7 5.4 3.4 2.1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. diploma or GED 13-15 years no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's or higher % Educational Attainment 13 Chart 8: Underemployment Rates of Employed Massachusetts Workers in Selected Educational Attainment and Household Income Groups, 2012-2013 (in %) The Problems of Hidden Unemployment among Massachusetts Workers Nationally, the number of persons in the ranks of the hidden unemployed has been quite cyclically sensitive, rising sharply both during the Great Recession and the early stages of the economic recovery. Similar patterns have prevailed in Massachusetts. During 2000, only 57,000 working-age individuals in our state or 1.7% of the adjusted civilian labor force were members of the hidden unemployed. Their numbers increased to 74,000 or 2.1% of the civilian labor force in 2003 and increased further to 88,000 by 2007. In 2011, their ranks had risen to 118,000 or 3.3% by the state’s resident labor force. Over the January 2012 – August 2013 period, on average there were 113,000 individual persons in the pool of the hidden unemployed, equivalent to 3.1% of the state’s adjusted civilian labor force.14 The incidence of hidden unemployment problems in our state during the 2012-2013 time period varied quite substantially across both household income and educational attainment groups (see Charts 9 and 10). Slightly more than 9% of the adjusted labor force participants from low income families were members of the hidden unemployed. This ratio fell to 5.4% for 14 According to the findings of the 2013 CPS surveys through August, nearly 4.2% of the adjusted civilian labor force in the state were members of the labor force reserve, the 17th highest such ratio among the 50 states. 25.0 11.7 6.5 4.9 2.0 1.1 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, <20 HS Diploma, 20-40 1-3 Years of College / 40- 75 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income / Educational Attainment 14 low middle income labor force participants to 2.3% for those with incomes modestly above the median household income and to a low of 1.2% for those labor force participants living in the highest income households. The lowest income labor force participants were seven times as likely to be members of the labor force reserve as were members of the state’s most affluent households (see Chart 9). Chart 9: Hidden Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers in the Adjusted Labor Force by Household Income, 2012-2013 (in %) These hidden unemployment problems also were strongly associated with the educational backgrounds of members of the state’s adjusted labor force. The less educated members of the resident labor force were far more likely to be found in the ranks of the hidden unemployed. More than 10% of those working-age adults without a high school diploma were members of the labor force reserve versus only 4% of high school graduates, nearly 2% of Associate degree holders, and only 1% of those labor force participants with a Master’s or higher degree. Those adults without a high school diploma were 9 times as likely to be a member of the hidden unemployed as their fellow residents with a Master’s or higher degree. 9.2 5.4 2.8 2.3 1.4 1.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 15 Chart 10: Hidden Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers in the Adjusted Labor Force by Educational Attainment, 2012-2013 (in %) The distribution of hidden unemployment rates among workers in combinations of educational attainment/household income groups was extraordinarily wide. Over 14% of high school dropouts from low income households were members of the hidden unemployed versus only 6% of high school graduates from low middle income families and under 1% of those with Bachelor’s or higher degrees from households with incomes above $100,000. The share of low income, high school dropout labor force participants that were members of the hidden unemployed was 29 times as high as that of those labor force members with advanced degrees who came from upper income families. 10.2 3.8 4.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. diploma or GED 13-15 years no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's or higher % Educational Attainment 16 Chart 11: Hidden Unemployment Rates of Massachusetts Workers in the Adjusted Labor Force in Selected Educational Attainment and Household Income Groups, 2012-2013 (in %) Labor Underutilization Problems Among Massachusetts Workers and Their Growing Disparities Across Educational and Income Groups: The End of the Average15 as a Basis for Understanding and Policy Making Our final set of measures on the labor market problems confronting Massachusetts’ workers consists of their combined labor underutilization rate. As discussed earlier in this paper, the underutilized labor pool consists of the unemployed, the underemployed, and the hidden unemployed. The pool of underutilized workers has varied widely in both our state and the nation over the past 12 years with large increases taking place during and after the Great Recession of 2007-09. The increased incidence of underutilization problems also has been accompanied by widening gaps in these rates across income and education groups. These findings make starkly clear the need to “end the average” as a measure for both describing and understanding labor market problems whether unemployment, underemployment, or labor underutilization and developing appropriate policy responses. 15 Average is Over is the title of a recent book by Tyler Cowen on moving the American economy forward. It was also the title of a chapter in the book That Used to Be Us by Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum. See: Tyler Cowen, Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation, Dutton Press, New York City, 2013. 14.4 6.0 4.3 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, 20-40 1-3 Years of College / 40- 75 Assoc. Degree, 75- 100 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income / Educational Attainment 17 During calendar year 2000, there were only 205,000 underutilized workers in Massachusetts, yielding an annual average underutilization rate of 6.5%. This was the third lowest underutilization rate among the 50 states during that year. The state’s underutilization rate and its relative ranking has deteriorated substantially since then. (see Chart 12). In the recessionary environment of 2000-2003, the overall labor underutilization rate of the state increased sharply to 10.0% by 2003. It then fell modestly over the next four years, dropping to 9.0% in 2007. During the Great Recession, the underutilization rate exploded, hitting 15.6% in 2009 and remaining in that general range in 2010 and 2011 when it reached 15.7%. On average, during the January 2012-August 2013 time period, there were 535,000 underutilized workers in our state, yielding an underutilization rate of 14.8%.16 Our rank among the 50 states was now only 20th lowest. Chart 12: The Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) in 2000, 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2012-2013 (in %) The labor underutilization rates of the state’s workers in 2012-2013 differed considerably across household income groups. (see Chart 13). The lowest income group of workers faced an underutilization rate of nearly 40%. This rate fell to 25% for the second lowest income group ($20,000-40,000), and then dropped steadily downward as the household’s income rose, dropping to 11% for those with incomes in the middle to upper middle income segment and to a low of 6.7% for those in the highest household income group. The lowest income group of 16During the May-August period of 2013, there was a sharp tick upward in the number of underutilized workers in Massachusetts. The number rose close to 580,000. 6.1 10.0 9.0 15.7 14.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2003 2007 2011 2012-2013 % 18 workers (nearly 300,000 such workers in this group) experienced an underutilization rate that was six times as high as that of the most affluent group of workers. Chart 13: Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) by Household Income in 2012- 2013 (in %) Labor underutilization rates in Massachusetts also ranged widely across the six educational groups in 2012-2013. The higher the level of one’s educational attainment, the lower was the rate of underutilization that they experienced. Nearly 35% of those workers lacking a high school diploma were underutilized versus 1 of every 5 high school graduates and those with one or more years of post-secondary schooling but no college degree. At the upper end of the educational distribution, underutilization rates were 9% for bachelor degree holders and 6% for those with a Master’s or more advanced degree. The least well educated group of workers encountered a labor underutilization rate that was six times higher than that of the best educated group. (see Chart 14). 40.1 24.9 14.6 10.6 7.5 6.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 <20 20-40 40-75 75-100 100-150 150+ % Household Income (in 1000s) 19 Chart 14: Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) by Educational Attainment in 2012-2013 (in %) Finally, we estimated the incidence of labor underutilization problems among groups of workers classified by their educational attainment/household income. Findings for selected groups of these workers from the top to the bottom of the labor underutilization rate distribution are displayed in Chart 15. High school dropouts from low income families faced the highest underutilization rate at 55%. High school graduates from this low income group also fared quite poorly with an underutilization rate of just under 41%. Nearly 27% of high school graduates from the second lowest income group were underutilized in 2012-2013. The incidence of such problems fell steeply for the best educated, more affluent groups of workers. Those workers with a Bachelor’s degree and a household income over $100,000 had an underutilization rate of only 5% that fell to 3% if the worker held a Master’s or higher degree. 34.7 19.8 20.0 12.3 9.0 6.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. diploma or GED Some college no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's or higher % Educational Attainment 20 Chart 15: Labor Underutilization Rates of Massachusetts Workers (16+) in Selected Educational Attainment and Household Income Groups 2012-2013 (in %) The least well educated, low income workers in Massachusetts were characterized by an underutilization rate that was 18 times higher than that of their best educated peers from the state’s most affluent families. The absolute size of the gap (in percentage points) between the labor underutilization rates of these two groups rose from 23 percentage points in 2000 to 52 percentage points in 2012-2013. Labor market problems are today characterized by a massive degree of socioeconomic inequality. Welcome to the Uncommonwealth of Massachusetts! 54.9 26.7 18.6 5.3 3.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 No HS Diploma / <20 HS Diploma, 20- 40 13-15 years / 40- 75 BA Degree, 100+ Master's or Higher, 100+ % Household Income (in 1000s) / Educational Attainment
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College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
The
The
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
2012-06
2012-06
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196071
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196071
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196071
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
The
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
college persistence rates of bps class of 2009 participants in the success boston program and comparisons with the experiences of bps graduates from matched colleges and demographic traits
The
2012/06/01
The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
2012-06
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
Palma, Sheila
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
Palma, Sheila
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Sum, Andrew
info:fedora/afmodel:CoreFile
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The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits 0 The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits Prepared by: Andrew Sum Ishwar Khatiwada With Sheila Palma Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts Prepared for: The Boston Foundation Boston, Massachusetts June 2012 (Updated with New Revised NSC Data Obtained in May 2012) Research Project on the College Enrollment, Persistence and Graduation Experiences of Boston High School Graduates Research Paper No. 4 CENTER FOR LABOR MARKET STUDIES Northeastern University 1 Introduction Among the goals of the overall Success Boston initiative are those of increasing persistence in college and major improvements in college graduation rates. To help improve our understanding of the experiences of participants in Success Boston programs, we have worked with the Boston Foundation, the Boston Private Industry Council, and the Boston Public Schools to identify the names of BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 who were enrolled in a Success Boston program in the fall of 2009 and those of graduates from the same class who did not participate in the program. Using findings from the National Student Clearinghouse on the fall 2009 college enrollment experiences of these graduates, we have tracked their persistence in college in both the following fall (the fall of 2010) and the fall of 2011. We will refer to these persistence rates as one year and two year persistence rates. This paper is designed to both describe and analyze the college persistence experiences of BPS Class of 2009 graduates in the Success Boston program and a set of their peers from the same graduating class who did not participate in the program. In the first analysis, we confine the findings to all BPS graduates who enrolled in college in the fall of 2009 except for graduates from two of the exam schools: Boston Latin and Latin Academy. In our second set of analyses, we confine our analysis to those BPS graduates who attended 1 of 7 community colleges or four year colleges that accounted for the vast majority (87%) of participants in the Success Boston initiative. Findings from a set of multivariate statistical analyses of the college persistence rates of college attendees in theses 7 institutions will be presented. The estimates of the independent impacts of participation in Success Boston on one-year and two-year college persistence rates will be presented and assessed. As a starting point for our analysis of the college persistence behavior of Success Boston participants, we compared the one-year and two-year college persistence rates of Class of 2009 Success Boston participants with those of non-participants from all high schools except Boston Latin and Latin Academy. The college persistence rates were estimated for all college attendees, for men and women, and for Blacks and Hispanics separately (Table 1). Overall and for both men and women separately, the Success Boston participants had a 12 to 13 percentage point higher one-year college persistence rate than their peers who were not members of the program. Black participants had a one-year college persistence rate that was 19 percentage points above 2 that of their peers who were not participants in the Success Boston program. For Hispanic participants, the one-year college persistence rate advantage was nearly 14-percentage points higher than that of their Hispanic peers who were not in the program. Table 1: Comparisons of 1-Year College Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 Success Boston Participants Compared to Non-Participants (Numbers in Percent) Group Success Boston Not Success Boston Difference All 86.7 73.8 +12.9 Men 84.0 70.9 +13.0 Women 88.5 76.1 +12.3 Black 91.4 72.6 +18.9 Hispanic 83.2 69.6 +13.6 N 211 1,427 We also estimated two-year college persistence rates for Class of 2009 BPS graduates. The 2-year college persistence rate for Class of 2009 Success Boston participants was nearly 74 percent compared to 61 percent for non-participants, a 13 percentage point difference (Table 2). Both men and women participants had 11 to 12 percentage point higher 2-year college persistence rates than their non-participant peers. Black high school graduates who were members of the Success Boston program had a 17 percentage point higher 2-year college persistence rate than their Black peers who were not members of the program. Hispanic participants had an 12 percentage point higher 2-year college persistence rates than their Hispanic peers who were not members of the Success Boston program. 3 Table 2: Comparisons of 2-Year College Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 Success Boston Participants Compared to Non-Participants (Numbers in Percent) Group Success Boston Not Success Boston Difference All 73.9 61.0 +13.0 Men 67.9 56.3 +11.7 Women 77.7 64.8 +12.9 Black 77.1 59.9 +17.2 Hispanic 68.3 56.2 +12.1 N 211 1,427 College Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 Boston Public High School Graduates in the Seven Colleges Enrolling the Largest Numbers of Success Boston Program Participants To estimate the independent impacts of the Success Boston program on college persistence outcomes for BPS graduates, it is desirable to select a carefully matched comparison group. The matched comparison group is designed to help measure the impacts of the Success Boston program as closely as it could have been if there was a randomized selection of graduates in the program. Seven colleges and universities enrolling the largest numbers of Success Boston program participants were selected for the matched comparison group. The one-year and two- year college persistence rates were estimated for Success Boston program participants and non- participants in those 7 colleges. The names of these seven institutions are listed in the table below. They include 2 community colleges (Bunker Hill and Roxbury Community College) and five four year colleges including the Benjamin Franklin Institute which awards two and four year degrees. All of these seven colleges were located in Massachusetts and accounted for nearly 87 percent of Success Boston participants from the Class of 2009 (Table 3). All of the graduates enrolled in these seven colleges were from all Boston public high schools other than two exam schools (Boston Latin High School and Latin Academy). These enrollees had very similar academic characteristics. Their MCAS score were very identical. It should also be noted that Success Boston serves high school graduates who are in need of help getting through college. 4 Table 3: Seven Colleges in Which the Largest Numbers of Success Boston Program Participants were Enrolled at Any Time Between Fall 2009 and Fall 2011 College Number of Enrollees % Distribution Benjamin Franklin Institute of Technology 13 5.3 Bridgewater State College 21 8.6 Bunker Hill Community College 75 30.7 Northeastern University 17 7.4 Roxbury Community College 20 8.2 Suffolk University 37 15.2 University of Massachusetts at Boston 28 11.5 Total Above 7 Colleges 211 86.8 All Other Colleges 33 13.5 Total 244 100.0 The 1-year and 2-year college persistence rates for BPS Class of 2009 Success Boston participants in the seven colleges included in our analysis are displayed in Table 4. The Success Boston participants enrolled in these seven colleges from the BPS Class of 2009 had sharply higher 1-year and 2-year college persistence rates than all other BPS graduates who were enrolled in these same colleges but were not members of the Success Boston program. Overall, the 1-year persistence rate of Class of 2009 Success Boston participants in the seven selected colleges was 20.4 percentage points higher than that for all other BPS graduates enrolled in those same seven colleges (86.4% versus 66.0%) (Table 2). These large persistence rate advantages for Success Boston program participants held true for both men and women and for Blacks and Hispanics who were members of the Success Boston program. 5 Table 4: Comparisons of 1-Year and 2-Year Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 BPS Graduates in Seven Selected Colleges Combined Who Participated in Success Boston Programs and BPS Enrollees in the Same Colleges Who Did not Participate Enrolled in Success Boston Not in Success Boston Difference Group 1-Yr Persistence Rate 2-Yr Persistence Rate 1-Yr Persistence Rate 2-Yr Persistence Rate 1-Yr Persistence Rate 2-Yr Persistence Rate N All 86.4 73.4 66.0 49.9 +20.4 +23.5 711 Male 83.3 66.7 62.5 46.6 +20.9 +20.1 343 Female 88.1 77.1 70.0 53.6 +18.1 +23.5 368 Black 90.3 77.4 64.8 49.6 +25.6 +27.8 306 Hispanic 82.6 66.3 58.6 42.7 +24.0 +23.6 243 We also estimated 2-year college persistence rates for Success Boston participants in these seven selected colleges and compared their persistence rates with all other BPS graduates who were not members of the Success Boston program. The Success Boston program participants from the BPS Class of 2009 had much higher 2-year college persistence rates than their counterparts who were not members of the Success Boston program. Overall, members of the Success Boston cohort were 23.5 percentage points more likely to persist through the second year in these selected colleges than all other graduates who were not program participants (Table 5). The percentage point size of the 2-year persistence rate advantage was highest for Blacks (25.6 percentage points) and Hispanics (23.6 percentage points). Linear probability models were used to estimate the independent impact of being a Success Boston participant on the college persistence rate for the first year of college; i.e., re- enrolled in college in the fall of 2010, and the second year of college. The dependent variable in these models is the individual’s persistence rate. It is a yes/no variable coded as 1 if the individual persisted in college into the following fall and 0 if he/she did not persist. The predictor variables included the individual’s gender, race-ethnic group, MCAS math scores, the college attended, 1 and their participation in the Success Boston program. This last treatment variable also 1 The base group for the model consists of youth enrolled at Bunker Hill Community College. MCAS scores were represented by performance on the exam: proficient, advanced, and failed. The base group consists of those who passed but classified as needs improvement. 6 was coded as a dummy variable where one represents a program participant and zero represents a non-participant. The estimated, independent impacts of Success Boston participation on the one year and two year college persistence rates of BPS Class of 2009 graduates were quite large and highly statistically significant (See Table 5). For the entire sample, the estimated impact on the one year persistence rate was a very large 16.7 percentage points, which was statistically significant at the .01 level (Table 5). The Success Boston program had equally large impacts on the one year persistence rates of both men and women with the impacts for both gender groups ranging from 14.8 to 18.6 percentage points. The linear probability models for the one year college persistence rates of Black and Hispanic graduates also yielded very sizable 22 and 17 percentage point impacts, both of which were significant at the .01 and .05 level, respectively. Table 5: Estimated Percentage Point Impacts of Participation in Success Boston Programs on the One Year and Two Year Persistence Rates of BPS Graduates from the Class of 2009, All and by Gender Group (A) One Year Persistence Rate (B) Sig. Level (C) Two Year Persistence Rate (D) Sig. Level All 16.7 .01 15.6 .01 Men 18.6 .01 16.3 .05 Women 14.8 .01 15.9 .01 Black 21.9 .01 18.9 .01 Hispanic 17.0 .01 13.7 .05 In the model for the two year college persistence rate, the independent impact of being a Success Boston program participant was an estimated 15.6 percentage points, which was significant at the .01 level. The impacts were quite large for both men (16 percentage points) and women (16 percentage points) and highly significant. Very favorable results also prevailed for both Blacks and Hispanics at 19 and 13.7 percentage points, respectively. Both of these estimates were highly significant. The findings on college persistence rates for BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 who participated in Success Boston programs in the 7 selected community colleges and four year 7 colleges are quite favorable both overall and for men, women, Blacks, and Hispanics. The persistence impacts frequently ranged from 15 to 22 percentage points and were highly significant. These results particularly stand out relative to findings from an array of experimental design evaluations in community colleges across the country. These recent demonstrations included the Learning Communities Demonstration at Kingsborough Community College in New York, the Opening Doors Program at Chaffey College in Southern California, the Learning Communities for Students in Development Math at Queensborough and Houston Community Colleges, and the recent Career-Focused Learning Communities program at Kingsborough College, All of these efforts failed to generate any significant gains in college retention and persistence even though they had some positive short-term gains in courses taken and credits received. 2 Future evaluations of the Success Boston initiative should include further tracking of the college persistence rates and graduation rates of Class of 2009 BPS graduates, evaluations of the persistence experiences of Class of 2010 participants, and analyses of their academic experiences, including course credits attempted, course credits received, GPAs, and graduation rates. A future impact evaluation based on random assignment to alternative treatments should also be attempted to provide an even more rigorous test of the model. These early results are quite promising. 2 See: (i) Mary G. Visher, and Jedediah Torres, Breaking New Ground: An Impact Study of Career Focused Learning Communities at Kingsborough Community College, National Center for Post-Secondary Research, July 2011; (ii) Evan Weissman, et.al., Learning Communities for Students in Developmental Math: Impact Studies at Queensborough and Houston Community Colleges, National Center for Post-Secondary Research, February 2011.
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College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
The
The
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
2012-06
2012-06
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196071
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196071
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20196071
CLMS
The Boston Foundation
The
College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
college persistence rates of bps class of 2009 participants in the success boston program and comparisons with the experiences of bps graduates from matched colleges and demographic traits
The
2012/06/01
The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits
2012-06
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
Palma, Sheila
Sum, Andrew
Khatiwada, Ishwar
Palma, Sheila
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University
Sum, Andrew
info:fedora/afmodel:CoreFile
info:fedora/neu:rx914j893
The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits 0 The College Persistence Rates of BPS Class of 2009 Participants in the Success Boston Program and Comparisons with the Experiences of BPS Graduates from Matched Colleges and Demographic Traits Prepared by: Andrew Sum Ishwar Khatiwada With Sheila Palma Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts Prepared for: The Boston Foundation Boston, Massachusetts June 2012 (Updated with New Revised NSC Data Obtained in May 2012) Research Project on the College Enrollment, Persistence and Graduation Experiences of Boston High School Graduates Research Paper No. 4 CENTER FOR LABOR MARKET STUDIES Northeastern University 1 Introduction Among the goals of the overall Success Boston initiative are those of increasing persistence in college and major improvements in college graduation rates. To help improve our understanding of the experiences of participants in Success Boston programs, we have worked with the Boston Foundation, the Boston Private Industry Council, and the Boston Public Schools to identify the names of BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 who were enrolled in a Success Boston program in the fall of 2009 and those of graduates from the same class who did not participate in the program. Using findings from the National Student Clearinghouse on the fall 2009 college enrollment experiences of these graduates, we have tracked their persistence in college in both the following fall (the fall of 2010) and the fall of 2011. We will refer to these persistence rates as one year and two year persistence rates. This paper is designed to both describe and analyze the college persistence experiences of BPS Class of 2009 graduates in the Success Boston program and a set of their peers from the same graduating class who did not participate in the program. In the first analysis, we confine the findings to all BPS graduates who enrolled in college in the fall of 2009 except for graduates from two of the exam schools: Boston Latin and Latin Academy. In our second set of analyses, we confine our analysis to those BPS graduates who attended 1 of 7 community colleges or four year colleges that accounted for the vast majority (87%) of participants in the Success Boston initiative. Findings from a set of multivariate statistical analyses of the college persistence rates of college attendees in theses 7 institutions will be presented. The estimates of the independent impacts of participation in Success Boston on one-year and two-year college persistence rates will be presented and assessed. As a starting point for our analysis of the college persistence behavior of Success Boston participants, we compared the one-year and two-year college persistence rates of Class of 2009 Success Boston participants with those of non-participants from all high schools except Boston Latin and Latin Academy. The college persistence rates were estimated for all college attendees, for men and women, and for Blacks and Hispanics separately (Table 1). Overall and for both men and women separately, the Success Boston participants had a 12 to 13 percentage point higher one-year college persistence rate than their peers who were not members of the program. Black participants had a one-year college persistence rate that was 19 percentage points above 2 that of their peers who were not participants in the Success Boston program. For Hispanic participants, the one-year college persistence rate advantage was nearly 14-percentage points higher than that of their Hispanic peers who were not in the program. Table 1: Comparisons of 1-Year College Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 Success Boston Participants Compared to Non-Participants (Numbers in Percent) Group Success Boston Not Success Boston Difference All 86.7 73.8 +12.9 Men 84.0 70.9 +13.0 Women 88.5 76.1 +12.3 Black 91.4 72.6 +18.9 Hispanic 83.2 69.6 +13.6 N 211 1,427 We also estimated two-year college persistence rates for Class of 2009 BPS graduates. The 2-year college persistence rate for Class of 2009 Success Boston participants was nearly 74 percent compared to 61 percent for non-participants, a 13 percentage point difference (Table 2). Both men and women participants had 11 to 12 percentage point higher 2-year college persistence rates than their non-participant peers. Black high school graduates who were members of the Success Boston program had a 17 percentage point higher 2-year college persistence rate than their Black peers who were not members of the program. Hispanic participants had an 12 percentage point higher 2-year college persistence rates than their Hispanic peers who were not members of the Success Boston program. 3 Table 2: Comparisons of 2-Year College Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 Success Boston Participants Compared to Non-Participants (Numbers in Percent) Group Success Boston Not Success Boston Difference All 73.9 61.0 +13.0 Men 67.9 56.3 +11.7 Women 77.7 64.8 +12.9 Black 77.1 59.9 +17.2 Hispanic 68.3 56.2 +12.1 N 211 1,427 College Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 Boston Public High School Graduates in the Seven Colleges Enrolling the Largest Numbers of Success Boston Program Participants To estimate the independent impacts of the Success Boston program on college persistence outcomes for BPS graduates, it is desirable to select a carefully matched comparison group. The matched comparison group is designed to help measure the impacts of the Success Boston program as closely as it could have been if there was a randomized selection of graduates in the program. Seven colleges and universities enrolling the largest numbers of Success Boston program participants were selected for the matched comparison group. The one-year and two- year college persistence rates were estimated for Success Boston program participants and non- participants in those 7 colleges. The names of these seven institutions are listed in the table below. They include 2 community colleges (Bunker Hill and Roxbury Community College) and five four year colleges including the Benjamin Franklin Institute which awards two and four year degrees. All of these seven colleges were located in Massachusetts and accounted for nearly 87 percent of Success Boston participants from the Class of 2009 (Table 3). All of the graduates enrolled in these seven colleges were from all Boston public high schools other than two exam schools (Boston Latin High School and Latin Academy). These enrollees had very similar academic characteristics. Their MCAS score were very identical. It should also be noted that Success Boston serves high school graduates who are in need of help getting through college. 4 Table 3: Seven Colleges in Which the Largest Numbers of Success Boston Program Participants were Enrolled at Any Time Between Fall 2009 and Fall 2011 College Number of Enrollees % Distribution Benjamin Franklin Institute of Technology 13 5.3 Bridgewater State College 21 8.6 Bunker Hill Community College 75 30.7 Northeastern University 17 7.4 Roxbury Community College 20 8.2 Suffolk University 37 15.2 University of Massachusetts at Boston 28 11.5 Total Above 7 Colleges 211 86.8 All Other Colleges 33 13.5 Total 244 100.0 The 1-year and 2-year college persistence rates for BPS Class of 2009 Success Boston participants in the seven colleges included in our analysis are displayed in Table 4. The Success Boston participants enrolled in these seven colleges from the BPS Class of 2009 had sharply higher 1-year and 2-year college persistence rates than all other BPS graduates who were enrolled in these same colleges but were not members of the Success Boston program. Overall, the 1-year persistence rate of Class of 2009 Success Boston participants in the seven selected colleges was 20.4 percentage points higher than that for all other BPS graduates enrolled in those same seven colleges (86.4% versus 66.0%) (Table 2). These large persistence rate advantages for Success Boston program participants held true for both men and women and for Blacks and Hispanics who were members of the Success Boston program. 5 Table 4: Comparisons of 1-Year and 2-Year Persistence Rates of Class of 2009 BPS Graduates in Seven Selected Colleges Combined Who Participated in Success Boston Programs and BPS Enrollees in the Same Colleges Who Did not Participate Enrolled in Success Boston Not in Success Boston Difference Group 1-Yr Persistence Rate 2-Yr Persistence Rate 1-Yr Persistence Rate 2-Yr Persistence Rate 1-Yr Persistence Rate 2-Yr Persistence Rate N All 86.4 73.4 66.0 49.9 +20.4 +23.5 711 Male 83.3 66.7 62.5 46.6 +20.9 +20.1 343 Female 88.1 77.1 70.0 53.6 +18.1 +23.5 368 Black 90.3 77.4 64.8 49.6 +25.6 +27.8 306 Hispanic 82.6 66.3 58.6 42.7 +24.0 +23.6 243 We also estimated 2-year college persistence rates for Success Boston participants in these seven selected colleges and compared their persistence rates with all other BPS graduates who were not members of the Success Boston program. The Success Boston program participants from the BPS Class of 2009 had much higher 2-year college persistence rates than their counterparts who were not members of the Success Boston program. Overall, members of the Success Boston cohort were 23.5 percentage points more likely to persist through the second year in these selected colleges than all other graduates who were not program participants (Table 5). The percentage point size of the 2-year persistence rate advantage was highest for Blacks (25.6 percentage points) and Hispanics (23.6 percentage points). Linear probability models were used to estimate the independent impact of being a Success Boston participant on the college persistence rate for the first year of college; i.e., re- enrolled in college in the fall of 2010, and the second year of college. The dependent variable in these models is the individual’s persistence rate. It is a yes/no variable coded as 1 if the individual persisted in college into the following fall and 0 if he/she did not persist. The predictor variables included the individual’s gender, race-ethnic group, MCAS math scores, the college attended, 1 and their participation in the Success Boston program. This last treatment variable also 1 The base group for the model consists of youth enrolled at Bunker Hill Community College. MCAS scores were represented by performance on the exam: proficient, advanced, and failed. The base group consists of those who passed but classified as needs improvement. 6 was coded as a dummy variable where one represents a program participant and zero represents a non-participant. The estimated, independent impacts of Success Boston participation on the one year and two year college persistence rates of BPS Class of 2009 graduates were quite large and highly statistically significant (See Table 5). For the entire sample, the estimated impact on the one year persistence rate was a very large 16.7 percentage points, which was statistically significant at the .01 level (Table 5). The Success Boston program had equally large impacts on the one year persistence rates of both men and women with the impacts for both gender groups ranging from 14.8 to 18.6 percentage points. The linear probability models for the one year college persistence rates of Black and Hispanic graduates also yielded very sizable 22 and 17 percentage point impacts, both of which were significant at the .01 and .05 level, respectively. Table 5: Estimated Percentage Point Impacts of Participation in Success Boston Programs on the One Year and Two Year Persistence Rates of BPS Graduates from the Class of 2009, All and by Gender Group (A) One Year Persistence Rate (B) Sig. Level (C) Two Year Persistence Rate (D) Sig. Level All 16.7 .01 15.6 .01 Men 18.6 .01 16.3 .05 Women 14.8 .01 15.9 .01 Black 21.9 .01 18.9 .01 Hispanic 17.0 .01 13.7 .05 In the model for the two year college persistence rate, the independent impact of being a Success Boston program participant was an estimated 15.6 percentage points, which was significant at the .01 level. The impacts were quite large for both men (16 percentage points) and women (16 percentage points) and highly significant. Very favorable results also prevailed for both Blacks and Hispanics at 19 and 13.7 percentage points, respectively. Both of these estimates were highly significant. The findings on college persistence rates for BPS graduates from the Class of 2009 who participated in Success Boston programs in the 7 selected community colleges and four year 7 colleges are quite favorable both overall and for men, women, Blacks, and Hispanics. The persistence impacts frequently ranged from 15 to 22 percentage points and were highly significant. These results particularly stand out relative to findings from an array of experimental design evaluations in community colleges across the country. These recent demonstrations included the Learning Communities Demonstration at Kingsborough Community College in New York, the Opening Doors Program at Chaffey College in Southern California, the Learning Communities for Students in Development Math at Queensborough and Houston Community Colleges, and the recent Career-Focused Learning Communities program at Kingsborough College, All of these efforts failed to generate any significant gains in college retention and persistence even though they had some positive short-term gains in courses taken and credits received. 2 Future evaluations of the Success Boston initiative should include further tracking of the college persistence rates and graduation rates of Class of 2009 BPS graduates, evaluations of the persistence experiences of Class of 2010 participants, and analyses of their academic experiences, including course credits attempted, course credits received, GPAs, and graduation rates. A future impact evaluation based on random assignment to alternative treatments should also be attempted to provide an even more rigorous test of the model. These early results are quite promising. 2 See: (i) Mary G. Visher, and Jedediah Torres, Breaking New Ground: An Impact Study of Career Focused Learning Communities at Kingsborough Community College, National Center for Post-Secondary Research, July 2011; (ii) Evan Weissman, et.al., Learning Communities for Students in Developmental Math: Impact Studies at Queensborough and Houston Community Colleges, National Center for Post-Secondary Research, February 2011.
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